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Sabermetrics
Saturday, May 26, 2012
In the NHL, you start by being part of the old-boys network, according to this current NHL executive, who wrote a book by talking to every living Stanley Cup Finals GM.
The lifetime these men spend building their networks and interacting with peers in various roles also gives them access to insight that helps guide their decision-making.
“At the core, the GM’s are in the information business,” Farris says. “If they can access information from all over the world ahead of other teams, they can gain an advantage. If they’re bringing a player in, they want to have a good read on the situation that the player is coming from and how he might impact the locker room, in addition to his on-ice abilities.”
And long-time, and successful GM, of the Devils, is my kind of guy when he says:
Controlling the flow of information and using it to drive internal decision-making is critical to success, but no optimal method exists that automatically translates to Stanley Cups.
New Jersey’s Lou Lamoriello, currently the NHL’s longest-tenured GM, takes a very different approach than Bowman. Instead of encouraging cooperation and teamwork amongst his staff, he creates information silos to eliminate the groupthink mentality.
“Lou purposely keeps certain people away from each other on the scouting and hockey operations staff,” Farris says. “He’ll say ‘look, the most important thing for you to do is X, go do it’ and he won’t tell anyone else what that guy might be doing because he wants to protect the integrity of the information.”
And this is what happens when you have a cap system:
Toronto has also built their organization around the power of ‘Big Blue’. As a GM in a constrained salary capped system, it’s important to create capacity for yourself. Maple Leafs ownership has given Burke the green light to outspend almost every team in the NHL when it comes to off-ice luxuries.
“Toronto has the best practice facility, a dedicated goalie coach, a player development staff, a scouting staff of 35 when most teams might have 20,” Farris says. “You’re limited in what you can spend in player salaries, but they’re outspending everyone off the ice to try and create a competitive advantage.”
Friday, May 25, 2012
I’m as big a fan of Pete Palmer as there is (which is why we asked him to write the foreword to The Book). And I had no idea he had a book out since last September. And I know I’ve corresponded with Pete a few times since, and he never said anything to me. Thanks to Phil’s latest BTN issue, I see that he has one.
Most of you were probably not around when we were launching The Book. The original edition was self-published. We needed seed money for the initial printing of the book. We also didn’t know how many books we’d need to print, as we didn’t want to overprint, and be left with tons of remainders. We also didn’t want to underprint, and miss out on printing discounts, as well as cause delays between orders and printing.
So, we had the idea of getting pre-orders in return for a modest discount on The Book. I think we had the list price at 16.95, and we gave a discounted price of 14.95 for pre-orders. We got some 250 pre-orders or so, which allowed us to print about 500 books. So, with 250 extra books to cover any regular sales, all of those regular sales would cover future books we’d order. We timed everything pretty well, ordering 200 books or 100 books at a time, as interest slowed down.
I used the same idea for “Tangotiger Teaches”, with a discounted price for pre-registration of students funding my time for preparing the courses, and eventually using my time for the classes (which, by the way, are ongoing for the DATA 101 class).
So, I totally get the quote here:
With Kickstarter, people are preordering your idea. Sure, they’re buying something tangible — a CD, a movie, a book, etc — but more than that, they’re pledging money because they believe in you, the creator. If you take the time to extrapolate beyond the obvious low-hanging goals, you can use this money to push the idea — the project — somewhere farther reaching than initially envisaged. And all without giving up any ownership of the idea. This — micro-seed capital without relinquishment of ownership — is where the latent potential of Kickstarter funding lies.
Basically, people believed in me and MGL and Andy, and so, pledged their support directly to us, and whatever creative ideas you expected out of us.
Similarly, the students who pre-registered for my course, completely blind as I had no syllabus to speak of, and no professorial experience at all (notwithstanding what I actually do on this blog), basically are buying into me, on faith, and whatever I can deliver.
So, it’s fantastic that someone had the idea to create this as a program, as Kickstarter, to better facilitate the process. And that leads to tons of creative people actually putting their ideas into practice, as the recipients eagerly await the results.
Speaking for myself, I am always thankful and indebted to all those who have shown the faith you have. Basically, you have limited evidence and a “gut feel”, and you jumped in. It’s a wonderful thing to be a part of it.
This guy says things about sabermetrics that are either not true, or the direct opposite of what sabermetics is:
Sabermetric fanatics believe that you can predict the outcome of any game or what a player will do in a certain situation. ... Bill James started this Sabermetric movement in the early 80’s, claiming that by using complicated data you can predict every outcome.
...
They also believe that you can predict a players future worth so when a player hits a down trend it’s time to let him go. Johnny Damon was a good example…
...
The numbers guru’s don’t believe that clutch hitting exist, sitting a their computer crunching numbers would have had guys like Reggie Jackson on the bench. Reggie was a below avg. fielder, struck out too much yet come playoffs “Mr. October” would come to life with multiple home run games and clutch hitting.
...
If you’ve ever played the game yourself, you’ll understand baseball is full of streaks and trends, you can use whatever numbers or stats it takes to prove your point, yet game in game out your still the same player.
...
Carlos Pena had only hit .115 in the month of May so the coach moved him up to lead-off batter. Sabermetrics would say bench him or bat him 9th in the lineup
None of the above are claims that sabermetrics would support. The bolded part is, if anything, the one thing that may most exemplify what sabermetrics actually is!
It’s pixelated, but just in case, may not be safe for work.
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Terrific article! Max looks at the change in fastball speed, based on the 24 base-out state, count, and quality of batter.
First, he finds that the pitchers throw harder with more runners on base, up to 1mph more, even though with runners on base, they are not going with the full windup. Either they are counting on adrenaline, or, they are sacrificing something (movement? location?) in these cases. That would be a good one for part 2 for Max, to see what the horizontal and vertical movement numbers change, as well as pitch distribution in the strike zone (or, for something quick, % of pitches that are called balls). It seems he controlled for count as well, based on his first note.
He also shows that the 2-strike count get close to 1mph more speed. Again, is he reaching back, or is he sacrificing movement and/or location for it? Location will be hard to determine, because we won’t have a baseline to compare against, since we expect him to throw on the edges on 2-strike pitches (even on 3-2, though not as much).
Finally, he shows it by hitter, and the big boppers are getting thrown to faster, while pitchers-as-batters are getting off a bit easy. Again, is it adrenaline, movement, or location that is the trade?
Anyway, love this stuff!
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Seinfeld had one of his dozens of classic bits, where the sports fan is simply rooting for laundry. I can’t confirm this is the episode, but it came back #1 on Google. Anyway, I found this amusing, by Dave Berri:
When pollsters ask Republicans and Democrats whether the president can do anything about high gas prices, the answers reflect the usual partisan divisions in the country. About two-thirds of Republicans say the president can do something about high gas prices, and about two-thirds of Democrats say he can’t.
But six years ago, with a Republican president in the White House, the numbers were reversed: Three-fourths of Democrats said President Bush could do something about high gas prices, while the majority of Republicans said gas prices were clearly outside the president’s control.
The flipped perceptions on gas prices isn’t an aberration, said Dartmouth College political scientist Brendan Nyhan. On a range of issues, partisans seem partial to their political loyalties over the facts. When those loyalties demand changing their views of the facts, he said, partisans seem willing to throw even consistency overboard.
At some point in the late 80s to early 90s, when my favorite players were traded from the Islanders (Hrudey, Lafontaine) and Expos (Raines), I decided that it didn’t make sense to simply root for whatever team I pledged allegiance to. I was rooting for the Whitesox when Raines got there. And I rooted for the Kings when Hrudey got there. And in 1993, when the Canadiens and Kings met, I rooted for Montreal, but I was rooting for them to take 40 shots and Hrudey to allow 2 goals, while Roy would allow 1.
So, do you root for laundry, or do you root for players (people)?
The most difficult would be in national competitions. If USA or Canada plays Italy or Brazil in soccer, and you are a Brazil or Italy fan, what do you do?
If your favorite player is Zach Parise and you can’t stand Sidney Crosby, and you are Canadian, what do you do? (In this last case, there’s no question you are rooting for the flag. It’s simply incomprehensible that you’d root for Parise as a Canadian, even though his dad played on Team Canada, making Parise a dual citizen, who chose team USA).
So, cultural upbringing first? (Let’s you choose Italy or Brazil over USA/Canada.)
Then flag next?
Then players/people?
Then laundry?
Or does laundry go above people?
Jason documents the ten pitchers who have lost the most velocity.
If you want to improve the study, you should:
1. Forget the AL/NL distinction
2. Show the pitcher’s RA9 and FIP in 2011 and so far in 2012
3. Show the change in speed for the non-fastballs
4. Show the change in frequency of the fastball (and pitches in the fastball family)
5. Give us the totals for the 10 pitchers
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Doesn’t this sound alot like the way they were pitching espnW:
They describe their site as a sports talk-show for women, “Sex in the City” meets ESPN. They bill their banter as “sports from a woman’s point of view” with talk about the game and players or coaches “in need of a makeover.”
Phil looks at the variables into a study that showed that there was no statistically significant reason for a differing in card value, but the card values of the black players was almost 10% lower. The most obvious reason is the one pointed out: the year of the rookie card. I don’t know if it was a variable, but it seemed to not have been.
Point out that a superstar has slump-numbers enough times, and eventually you’ll be right. People love to point out the winner bet and forget all the loser bets along the way.
Anyway, so it’s reported that the last time Halladay had a first-10-start stretch that was worse than what he currently has was back in 2007. In those 10 starts, in 68 IP, he had 46K and 10 BB, which is pretty good. He had 6 HR, which is about average. He had a .321 BABIP, which is terrible. He was also on the mound for 38 runs of the 86 baserunners (44% scoring, which is way above the league average, likely indicating he had a poor split with men on base). Of the numbers that have the most meaning in terms of persistence (that is, that the skill is most associated to the outcome), it’s: K rate, BB rate, HR rate, BABIP, men on base split. Halladay happened to have bad outcomes in those things he has the least control over. But, he’s on the mound, and he’s getting ASSIGNED all the blame. Assigned as in assigned, not as in earned.
Anyway, what happened in his next 10 starts? 70 IP, 40K, 19 BB, which is actually worse than his first 10 starts. 4 HR, which is better, and a .289 BABIP which is much better. He gave up only 27 runs (30% of runners on base scored), which is pretty good. If these were his first 10 starts of the 2007 or 2012 season, no one says a word.
In his next 10 starts of 2007: 80 IP (that’s 8 IP per start!), 49K, 18BB (basically somewhere between his first 10 starts and his second 10 starts), 5 HR (right in the middle of his first 10 and second 10 starts), .287 BABIP (back to his normal self), and 31 runs scored (32% of runners on base scored), which is pretty good.
In 2012, Doc is: 70 IP, 56 K, 13 BB, which is a tremendous K/BB level. He’s at 5 HR, which is good. A .290 BABIP, which is his normal self. He’s given up 28 runs (35% of runner scored, which is not that good). In 2012, Doc has a .263 BABIP with bases empty, and .338 with men on base. If you consider BABIP to be hugely influenced by fielders, and good/back breaks, then a split of BABIP by men on base is even more so.
Anyway, place your bets against the best pitcher of his generation, because in 10 starts, he happened to be on the mound with a high BABIP with men on base. To simply ASSIGN Doc 100% responsibility of all that, and completely absolve his fielders, is ridiculous. And to not even consider random variation (good/bad breaks) means that you are ignoring how the real world works, and you think you can simply compartmentalize things into a neat little box, and think you have the world figured out.
The above is a long-winded way to say: sh!t happens.
Good for Bochy, to chew him out, but delay any punishment.
The way I see it, a game is at least as important as practice drills. When you do drills, you go all-out. You go all-out in drills not because you want to win at that moment (after all, there’s nothing to win in a drill), but to condition yourself so that when the moment comes in the future, you will naturally go all out.
The same applies in a real game: even if you think you can’t win at that moment, you should then shift into “drill mode” and go all-out: not to win at that moment (because the chances are that you may not increase your team’s chance of winning), but to condition yourself so that when the moment comes in the future, you will naturally go all out.
You should never put in less effort in a game than in a drill. To do that, you are simply being myopic, only considering the immediate cost/benefit of going all out relative to increasing your chances of winning. You have to think like a drill, and treat a real game as a simulated game or drill, and go all-out. Again, it’s all about the future benefit, not the immediate one.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Even before the injury, Strasburg was getting a quicker hook. This is what happened, start by start:
70 after 6, ended at 82 (12 pitches in last inning)
84 after 5, ended at 108 (24 in last)
61 after 5, ended at 93 (32 in last)
71 after 5, ended at 94 (23 in last)
82 after 6, ended at 101 (19 in last)
76 after 6, pulled
73 after 5, ended at 103 (30 in last)
74 after 4, pulled
78 after 4, ended at 90 (12 in last)
The basic story after the first five starts is that if he finished the inning with under 85-90 pitches, he was sent out for one more inning, even if he labored in the last inning for 20 or 30 pitches (they don’t pull him out until he gets all three outs). The exception to this rule was his first start.
In his next four starts however, it was a 50/50 proposition that if he was still under 80 pitches, that he would be sent out for one more inning.
Normally, I don’t like to look at the “last inning” of a pitcher, because the last inning of a pitcher is usually a pretty bad inning (that’s why it’s his last). With Stras though, it seems that they have a more specific plan, that they don’t really care about his performance. It’s actually a beautiful thing from an analyst’s viewpoint, because we always worry about selective sampling, and we don’t seem to have that here.
Anyway, I wonder if they decided that sending him out in starts 2 - 5 was telling the Nats that maybe they were overly ambitious. He threw a sh!tload of pitches in the last inning in each of his games.
So now, instead of definitely sending him out if he’s still at 70-80 pitches at the end of the inning, they MIGHT send him out for one last one.
While I am sure I am biased, I’ll include hiring Dan Fox in the mix.
There are different identifiers, with age, experience, and production being among them, and that’s the focus Bill shows in this good piece. It could be that the focus would simply be on the identity of the hitter, but there’s still lots of work today between here and there.
This is a great way to use WPA to start to tell a story. They all have the same thing in common: the Brewers were tied or behind, and then after the HR, were ahead or tied. And it was in the late innings in most instances. We could have used THAT as the english-definition (ties or puts you in the lead, in the 7th or later innings). WPA basically refines that by quantifying it in a continous scale, rather than an either/or binary scale.
Cool piece by Troy, showing the percentage of called pitches were deemed strike, according to the umpire, and the percentage of called pitches were tracked as strikes, according to PITCHf/x. At the league average, both are 45.4%.
. YEAR Zone % Zone % Pitch f/x
2009 51.70% 50.80%
2010 47.80% 50.90%
2011 48.30% 52.90%
2012 43.50% 51.00%
Another knockout interview by David Laurilia. I have several hundred articles and blog posts in my reader every day, so I will usually skim headlines, and for a small portion of them, I’ll open them up, and then just skim the article. In a few rare cases, I’ll read every single word, and that’s what I did here.
I love it whenever a player talks about fielding, and you can tell how much Ryan cares about it.
The following is an exchange between a reader and Bill James, where the reader quotes a report in the Boston Globe to that effect, and Bill James describes a true story where a ball-sniffing dog would separate the two kinds of balls. The seam-thing is the first I heard of it, but, given different standards and different manufacturing plants, I wouldn’t be surprised.
I also remember one year Felipe Alou suggesting that the balls were different (might have been 1997 or 1998), that the balls were “slicker” (meaning harder for the pitcher to grip, either because of the material, or the seams).
Bill, per the Boston Globe, minor league baseballs have more pronounced seams than major league balls (which is why Dice-K uses the MLB variety in his rehab games). Is there really a difference? If so, wouldn’t every team and every pitcher be better served by using the real thing, rather adding adjustment to s different ball to all the other pressures and changes pitchers face when they reach the majors…
Asked by: greggb
Answered: 5/22/2012
The balls are different, but I didn’t know they would let you use major league balls in minor league games. I would presume there would be an economic barrier to the wide usage of major league balls in minor league games--if not an outright prohibition on it. Major league balls are more expensive.
This is a true story; the Red Sox minor league equipment co-ordinator used to have a dog that had been trained to tell the difference between a minor league ball and a major league ball. We would sort the balls into “buckets"--major league balls in one bucket, minor league balls in the other. Major league teams have dozens and dozens of buckets of balls around for batting practice and such like. Anyway, if there was one major league ball in a bucket of minor league balls, that dog would smell it, and he would remove all the balls from the bucket until he found the major league ball, put it in the major league bucket, then he would put the minor league balls back in the minor league bucket. True story.
Alan posted a letter from (.doc file) the testing facility that says:
The Major League balls are manufactured in Costa Rica and have a compressed cork sphere per the specifications. The Minor League balls are manufactured in China and have a cork center as specified in “1996 Minor League Baseball Proposal”. This cork center is the likely source for the decrease in performance, which results in a comparable Minor League ball hit of 391.8 ft under the same conditions as the Major League balls [at 400 feet].
It should be noted that an 8 to 9 foot drop in batted ball distance would lead to a 25% drop in the number of home runs. It’s all well-and-fine to say that there might be an eight foot difference in home runs due to the difference in ball configuration, and to you and me, that sounds like a small number, but the reality is that it has a tremendous impact.
There’s also this quote, that talks about how a ball could meet specifications, but would have a drastic impact:
This means that theoretically, two baseballs could meet the specifications but one ball could be hit 49.1 feet further than the other could be hit. This 49.1 feet is the combination of the increased distance of 8.7 feet for the ball being on the light side with respect to weight (i.e. 5.00 oz. as opposed to 5.25 oz.) and an additional 40.4 feet for the COR being biased to the high side (i.e. 0.578 versus 0.514). However, it should be noted that the balls investigated in this study did not exhibit this potential 49.1-ft difference. Thus, the tested baseballs indicate that the 1999 and 2000 baseballs fall within a tight range of batted-ball performance and that the 1999 and 2000 baseballs are for all practical purposes the same with respect to batted ball performance. The 49.1-ft value is purely academic—it was not seen in the balls tested.
Basically, the plants do a great job of producing balls within a tight range, but the specs allow for a huge margin of error.
Sunday, May 20, 2012
Here’s Lincecum covering home plate.
The runner was pretty nice to him on the slide. My question: had the runner launched himself at Lincecum, and taken him out (and likely injured him), would anyone have a problem with that?
from Amazon
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