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Friday, May 25, 2012
This guy says things about sabermetrics that are either not true, or the direct opposite of what sabermetics is:
Sabermetric fanatics believe that you can predict the outcome of any game or what a player will do in a certain situation. ... Bill James started this Sabermetric movement in the early 80’s, claiming that by using complicated data you can predict every outcome.
...
They also believe that you can predict a players future worth so when a player hits a down trend it’s time to let him go. Johnny Damon was a good example…
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The numbers guru’s don’t believe that clutch hitting exist, sitting a their computer crunching numbers would have had guys like Reggie Jackson on the bench. Reggie was a below avg. fielder, struck out too much yet come playoffs “Mr. October” would come to life with multiple home run games and clutch hitting.
...
If you’ve ever played the game yourself, you’ll understand baseball is full of streaks and trends, you can use whatever numbers or stats it takes to prove your point, yet game in game out your still the same player.
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Carlos Pena had only hit .115 in the month of May so the coach moved him up to lead-off batter. Sabermetrics would say bench him or bat him 9th in the lineup
None of the above are claims that sabermetrics would support. The bolded part is, if anything, the one thing that may most exemplify what sabermetrics actually is!
It’s pixelated, but just in case, may not be safe for work.
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Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Doesn’t this sound alot like the way they were pitching espnW:
They describe their site as a sports talk-show for women, “Sex in the City” meets ESPN. They bill their banter as “sports from a woman’s point of view” with talk about the game and players or coaches “in need of a makeover.”
Friday, May 18, 2012
I follow the NHL, I occasionally keep up with the NFL, and if I pass by the NBA, I’ll stop to take a look. And when I was living in Canada, I was an avid CFL follower. None of the media that follows those sports ever make a big deal about inter-conference play. Indeed, they never make any deal about it. At the start of the season, you may be told how often a team plays their inter-conference opponents, but that’s it.
The media trips over themselves to bring out the “news” that there’s inter-conference play in MLB. It’s not 1996 any longer. Is it the remnant of the DH rule not being uniform? Is it that there’s only 10% games that are inter-conference, in comparison to the 20%-25% for the other sports? Or, does the media simply love “press release” reporting, because it’s the easiest way to make a buck?
Also pay attention to the “extra teams in the playoffs” “story” that will likely play out. That is also a falsehood. It’s a play-in game. The number of teams in the playoffs is the same. Whoever wins the division will have have practically the exact same chance to win the World Series, regardless of the existence of the play-in game. The extra game impacts only the wild card team, and it reduces their chance in the new format. That could only be a good thing, not a bad thing.
Reject the media narrative this weekend. It’s as lazy as it can get (like my post here).
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
I get a little kick when a player says anything sabermetric related, and in a good way.
There are stats now like defensive UZR, and all that, but they don’t show the placement of the player. Everything nowadays is so statistical. Like wOBA. We have a wOBA this year –weighted on-base average. It’s pretty cool to look at that, even though we joke about it.
Thursday, May 10, 2012
As if the Murray Chass quoting WAR wasn’t enough, as if Obama saying that marriage wasn’t the domain of opposite-gendered couples, now we have this:
Look at where Brendan Ryan is. Look at where he made that play. And he did make that play, as he wheeled around and threw to first ahead of Fielder, who is not actually that slow. In immediate response, Mike Blowers remarked “that’ll help his Ultimate Zone Rating” without a hint of sarcasm. The Mariners’ TV broadcast hasn’t only shown UZR in graphics. Tonight a broadcaster - an ex-ballplayer - mentioned UZR, entirely on his own. There were two amazing things about this play.
Progress is all around us. (Tongue is partly in cheek, for you guys who think I’m not having a bit of fun here.)
First Nixon goes to China, and now this?
Rob Neyer has a good article for you. Maybe people who quote the W-L record of a pitcher will take their noses out of their spreadsheets and watch a game sometime.
Friday, May 04, 2012
Mike and Jeff talked about it on twitter, and here is proof. Darn images are blocked at the office, so I have to wait four more hours to see it myself. I alerted Pete Palmer of this, since he was the one that did the most to expose it to the rest of us. And thanks to the new Astros gang for trying out new things!
Always good to see good things happening to good people.
Wonderful idea for a project. I love it when people try out their ideas for all to see.
I agree that the high correlation between the separate categories is trouble-some, which really means that you either collapse the categories, or find some more granular categories to ask about.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Whether it’s satirical or serious (or a bit of both), good job on the writer in turning this:
Into that:
Clearly something needs to be done about the state of professional hockey in Canada, since at this precise moment there is no actual professional hockey being played in Canada, with the second round of the National Hockey League playoffs under way. Everyone has been sent home and forced to think about what they have done.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
I’ve had Jeff on my blogroll since the beginning of… well, the beginning. But, sheeeeeet, this guy has been on a fantastic roll. I love these two blog posts from last night / this morning, as both brought me somewhere that I didn’t expect to go.
I don’t even want to clip the portions, because Jeff deserves to be read completely, and in context. And maybe it’s just me, as he’s appealing to my french half, my hockey half, and my Mariners half.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
A really good read about a really good guy. And I know, because Dave told me.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Is there anyone better than Jeff Sullivan? If there is, please link. One of the first things I read every morning is what Jeff says. This is what I’d rather get than reporters trying to get some banal quote from players, and simply doing their robotic job. I saw an article that was completely written by software and indistinguishable from those written by people. I don’t think there’s a software program that can provide the human nuances that Jeff does. His images linger, and what I get from my morning paper doesn’t.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
It doesn’t exist, but I’d like to propose it.
I’m not smart enough to figure out why these policies exist, other than it’s inertia and models driven by assumptions that may or may not be reasonable. The problem with models is that they can only be confirmed if it matches reality. And, we don’t have that when it comes to what happens if you remove TV blackouts. So, what if MLB.TV says that all blackout policies are suspended for the month of September? Now, the actuaries have actual data of what happens when you don’t have a blackout policy. They can update their assumptions to something more reasonable (less uncertain), and then they can come up with a better blackout policy based on their new models. And hopefully that means that whatever assumptions were made that put Hawaii on a blackout list will no longer apply.
Now, tell me what fine details I’m missing, and how the TV networks impact anything MLB.TV tries to do.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Story.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
A few years ago, it was Papelbon, and now it’s Bard. You had Joba. Poor Phil Hughes. Can we blame the media scrutiny?
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Great stuff from Chass, and he’s a tried-and-true cynical blogger by going after the NY Times. Most bloggers don’t realize that Murray Chass is their future. Deal with it.
Monday, March 19, 2012
We all love Boog Sciambi. We ALSO love Vin Scully.
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