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Thursday, May 24, 2012
Seinfeld had one of his dozens of classic bits, where the sports fan is simply rooting for laundry. I can’t confirm this is the episode, but it came back #1 on Google. Anyway, I found this amusing, by Dave Berri:
When pollsters ask Republicans and Democrats whether the president can do anything about high gas prices, the answers reflect the usual partisan divisions in the country. About two-thirds of Republicans say the president can do something about high gas prices, and about two-thirds of Democrats say he can’t.
But six years ago, with a Republican president in the White House, the numbers were reversed: Three-fourths of Democrats said President Bush could do something about high gas prices, while the majority of Republicans said gas prices were clearly outside the president’s control.
The flipped perceptions on gas prices isn’t an aberration, said Dartmouth College political scientist Brendan Nyhan. On a range of issues, partisans seem partial to their political loyalties over the facts. When those loyalties demand changing their views of the facts, he said, partisans seem willing to throw even consistency overboard.
At some point in the late 80s to early 90s, when my favorite players were traded from the Islanders (Hrudey, Lafontaine) and Expos (Raines), I decided that it didn’t make sense to simply root for whatever team I pledged allegiance to. I was rooting for the Whitesox when Raines got there. And I rooted for the Kings when Hrudey got there. And in 1993, when the Canadiens and Kings met, I rooted for Montreal, but I was rooting for them to take 40 shots and Hrudey to allow 2 goals, while Roy would allow 1.
So, do you root for laundry, or do you root for players (people)?
The most difficult would be in national competitions. If USA or Canada plays Italy or Brazil in soccer, and you are a Brazil or Italy fan, what do you do?
If your favorite player is Zach Parise and you can’t stand Sidney Crosby, and you are Canadian, what do you do? (In this last case, there’s no question you are rooting for the flag. It’s simply incomprehensible that you’d root for Parise as a Canadian, even though his dad played on Team Canada, making Parise a dual citizen, who chose team USA).
So, cultural upbringing first? (Let’s you choose Italy or Brazil over USA/Canada.)
Then flag next?
Then players/people?
Then laundry?
Or does laundry go above people?
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Phil looks at the variables into a study that showed that there was no statistically significant reason for a differing in card value, but the card values of the black players was almost 10% lower. The most obvious reason is the one pointed out: the year of the rookie card. I don’t know if it was a variable, but it seemed to not have been.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
A nice little interview with Hawk.
Friday, May 04, 2012
For those of you who missed out on the 1980s, Oil Can was one of those characters to appreciate. Great job by Bruce!
Thursday, May 03, 2012
Great stories about Sparky Anderson.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
(All data excludes post-season, which obviously, is not a smart thing to do, but it is a lazy thing to do on my part.)
According to Rally’s version of WAR (rWAR):
70 wins Jeter
56 wins Mariano
Fangraphs (fWAR) says:
76 Jeter
39 Mariano (not credited for low BABIP)
Baseball Pro (WARP) says:
60 Jeter
33 Mariano (not credited for leverage, I don’t think)
Average of the three:
69 Jeter
43 Mariano
How much were they paid in their careers to date?
220MM$ Jeter
144MM$ Mariano
So, the stats say it’s Jeter, and the Yankees says it’s Jeter. But fans I’ll bet would be split evenly.
Interesting aside, this is how much they were paid per win:
3.2MM$ per win Jeter
3.3MM$ per win Mariano
Thursday, April 26, 2012
We tried to appeal to Joe Morgan’s inner-sabre, telling him that he was one of the best players in the history of the game. That didn’t seem to work. Blyleven did listen to Rich, and that turned out pretty good. Now, Bradley is trying it with Brenly.
This time, it’s Dayn Perry’s turn to expose them.
Even though Gomez’s stated reason for suspecting Bagwell of PED use is roundly disproven, he decides to, in essence, stick out his tongue and appeal to his own misplaced authority. (You may recognize this approach to argument from its formal title, “Rhetorical Techniques of the Chastened Pre-Schooler.") As Hall-of-Fame voting privileges go, it’s a dereliction of duties.
...
The Hall of Fame is a wonderful place, but it deserves better gatekeepers than Gomez.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
A fun article that takes us through history.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Wins Above Average is a component of Wins Above Replacement.
We’ve talked about whether WAA or WAR is better for Hall of Fame, in the past. The best we’ve come up with is to only take those seasons where a player’s WAA was a plus, and add those up. The idea is that a player can’t hurt his chances to making the HOF, by playing too long.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
As only he can be.
The runner reached base safely, the sac bunt was completed. But then the runner decided to let himself get thrown out after the play. Is this one of those “continuous plays” calls that the play isn’t over until.... something else stops the play?
And why in the world is Cliff Lee throwing to 2B there?
Monday, April 02, 2012
Fantastic piece on ESPN, regarding Al Campanis. Many under 30 may not appreciate the story, and anyone over 40 will appreciate this behind-the-scenes recap.
It’s interesting that “necessities” is automatically meant to be taken as “necessary intelligence” (as I had taken it at the time), but that the intended meaning as reported by those close to Campanis to mean “necessary experience”. Had Campanis said that management was about the “old boys network”, and so, it’s very hard for a black person or a woman to break through, then the “necessities” may have been self-evident. But, in that limelight, it’s not at all how it came out. And given an opportunity to make himself clearer, Campanis stumbled even more.
The account simply makes it seem like a huge misunderstanding, and that bad things happened to good people.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Leverage Index continues to find the stories that would otherwise be left for dead.
Friday, March 23, 2012
Bill James had this great thing called Tracers, where he would investigate some claim someone said, based on his memory. Neyer I think did the bulk of those, and then Neyer expanded that into a book. Usually, those claims ended up being false.
Well, now someone decided to do a tracer on Bill James’ claims of events he remembered.
Rather than saying “greatest shortstop”, I wrote it like I did above. It’s less nuanced, and shows that we’re looking at the total package (offense and fielding), so it knocks out Ozzie probably. Also, the nuance of what to do with ARod goes away as well, as it knocks him out as well. And knocks Ripken down a peg (a little but not enough). And as you know, to me a career is not just “regular season”, which is a silly way to limit a player’s accomplishment, as if Pele winning three World Cups don’t count or something (starting at age 17!!).
And as Neyer, notes, what to do with Honus Wagner. Only in baseball would we consider a player who played over 100 years ago as THE comparison point. But, that’s how myths get created. And Neyer makes the point that by not having a timeline adjustment, you can make a reasonable case that virtually all the greatest players played 50 years ago or later.
Anyway, you can make a very reasonable case that Derek Jeter is indeed the player who has had the greatest career at the SS position.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
An interesting project.
***
On a related note: Can the Straight Arrow readers propose something better than “Very Good”, because that’s what I see in many different forums. As it stands, that term legitimizes the existing Hall of Fame’s treatment of Hershiser, Saberhagen, Dennis Martinez, et al, and cements them as not great. These guys have legitimate cases for a “Hall of Greats”. Just because the BBWAA hasn’t adorned them with that pin doesn’t mean that we should only talk about them as “very good”.
Monday, March 12, 2012
According to this, Escobar of the Jays may be asked to move over to 2B.
When the Mets acquired Kaz Matsui, they already had Jose Reyes. Reyes had already shown what he could do both hitting and fielding-wise at the MLB level. Matsui didn’t, but, they thought he was the better option at SS. It did not take long for the Mets fans to turn on him. Mets management finally swapped Reyes back to SS and put Matsui at 2B in the next season. This was because Matsui wasn’t as good a fielder.
But, say you have Barry Larkin and Pokey Reese? The case on the fielding side for an aging Larkin and a young Reese is easy: put Reese at SS. But, what if Reese can’t hit? What do you do? Put Larkin back at SS? How long do you wait out Reese? You have Mike Cameron in CF and you acquire Carlos Beltran. Even if Cameron is the better CF, you have a long-term plan with Beltran, so, it’s easier to keep Beltran in CF and move Cameron out.
So, having an established player like Escobar move over for a rookie is showing enormous faith in the rookie.
I’d like to hear of other historical decisions like this, where the incumbent (preferably under 30) was moved over for a rookie. I can’t check right now, but since Ozzie started in the league young and famously played every single inning at SS (that true? I think it is), did he displace an established young veteran?
Saturday, March 10, 2012
This is pretty shocking:
The Texas Rangers’ position player who divided the fan base more than any other last season was Ian Kinsler, and there wasn’t a close second.
Too many pop-ups and too low of a batting average, cried fans in e-mails and on Twitter, especially as the leadoff hitter for a team trying to defend its American League championship.
Over the last 4 years, Ian Kinsler is #11 in fWAR and #12 in rWAR. In MLB.
I do see that he’s poor in the clutch, and if you include that, he drops down to around #20. It’s sensational production, no matter how you slice it.
Why are Rangers fans upset with him? This feels like it’s still 1982, as we’re learning about how runs get created, and the value of a glove, and batting average rules the day.
This is yet another example why batting average needs to be eradicated. It’s just too easy to use as a sword against someone.
from Amazon
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