THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, April 02, 2012

OOTP13

This guy likes it.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Diary of your “rolling the dice”: does anyone give a f-ck (*)?

Brandon McCarthy (FIP lover):

Let’s make a deal guys: I’ll try my super duper hardest to play well, and in return you will never ever ever update me on your fantasy team.

There’s nothing a fan cares more about this his own fantasy team.  There’s nothing a fan cares less about than some other guy’s fantasy team.  You may remember when you hit on black for seven straight rolls, but believe me, no one else does.  It’s narcissistic, isn’t it?

So, why do fans insist on recounting their tales?  NONE of it can possibly be applicable to anyone else.  At least, when I talk about something esoteric on my blog here, there’s at least one other human being on the planet that is going to appreciate it.

I’d like to hear from those who listen to those people who recount their tales of winning in what is essentially luck: is it ever interesting? 

(*) The bleeped out word is: flick.  Like flicking cards.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Read Mail of the day: When does a low correlation tells you ALOT?

[My site] sponsors [large N] online leagues (12 team MLB, 5x5).  For 2011, we have all the draft information and final standings.

I used my composite projections from 2011..., determined $ value per player, and then compared the correlation of each team’s summed pre-season value against their roto points.

Surprisingly, this only came in at 8%.

Let’s say that everyone works off the same list (Marcel).  Everyone uses that to snake-draft, or (even better) auction off.

What do you think the expected value of each team is?  Well, it’s going to be identical!

What is the correlation between the expected value of each team and its final observed value?  It’s going to be zero!

That the correlation is so low can tell you two things:
1. It doesn’t matter how you draft because you get random results
2. It HIGHLY matters how you draft because everyone is so close to the same valuation system

All you need to drive the correlation UP is to have one knucklehead pick randomly.  In that case, you have a larger spread in “true talent”, and so, that’s going to drive the correlation.  Otherwise, since everyone will have most of the players roughly valued the same, the correlation is only picking up those guys that are valued differently.  How many of those guys can there be?

Sunday, February 05, 2012

Forecaster’s Challenge: 2012?

I’ve been running the Scouting Report and the Community Survey balloting because I firmly believe in their value.  The scouting report gives “shape” to a player’s fielding description, while I’ll put up the Community up against any one’s playing time forecasts.

But for the Forecaster’s Challenge… well, I’m wondering if I’ve said everything that needs to be said about that.  Am I doing it simply to keep doing it, or am I learning something new.  I don’t think I’m learning something new any longer.

What say you?

Super Simple Baseball Game

Great job from Rally:

http://www.baseballprojection.com/ssbbg.html

Sunday, January 29, 2012

ULTIMATE BASEBALL THE GAME

I asked the game creator to give me a non-marketing view of his game.  And he delivered. (pdf).  On pages 2-3 of his 15 page response(!), he talks about “Gamer-led strategizing”, which is a fantastic feature to consider.  I’ve never heard about it being offered in such detail.

Anyway, he’s offering a couple of free trials to me, but I declined, and instead, I will forward that offer to two Straight Arrow readers.  This is how you qualify:
1. email me at tom~tangotiger~net
2. be prepared to play this game for several hours, if not dozens of hours
3. be prepared to write a review of this, that I will post to my blog; I want you to be fair, and honest, and review from the perspective of what kind of person would enjoy this game (rather than if YOU enjoyed it or not)

Anyway, I love how much and how detailed he wrote me, easily the longest email response I have ever received on any subject. 

UPDATE: Offer has been closed!  I got a bunch of emails, so, I’m going to pick out two semi-randomly.  I’ll send an email out tonight.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Forecaster’s Challenge 2011: Results (preview)

There was one official competition, and three unofficial one.

The consensus pick among the other 21 pro forecasters ended up in 2nd place, by a single point, against the official winner (which I’ll reveal tomorrow). 

When looking at the four competitions overall, the consensus pick finished #1.  Marcel finished 12th among the 22, and the Fangraphs community was a sliver behind at 13th.

The consensus also finished #5 last year over the 4 competitions.

My main takeaway is that the best thing to do is take a consensus of the pros.  No one is really consistently providing value-added.

By the way, using my points system, tied for 1st place among players were Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp.

Monday, August 22, 2011

How to convert an ordered list into a dollar-value list

Someone asked me how I convert the ordered list of ballots into an implied dollar-value list.

I think we’ve discussed this in the past.  And perhaps there are better ways to do it.  I’ll show you my way, and you can figure out if it works for you, or if you can improve it:

Read More

Friday, August 19, 2011

Forecaster’s Challenge - current results

As you know, we have 4 competitions: 3 unofficial ones, and one official one.

The first unofficial one is: 22 pros, all in one cage match (I used to run 1000 drafts, but now I only run 100).  So, all 21 are in league together, and the 22nd is a “consensus” pick of all 21.  Below are the current results.

“Value_ct” is the standings points earned, and what you should look at primarily.

“points_ct” is the average points the players earned in each draft.

Right now, it looks like a three-horse race between Consensus, RotoWorld, and Steamer.

As I get time, I’ll be running the results for the other 2 unofficial competitions, and of course, the official one.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Reader bleg: WAR based points league, inc fielding, looking for owners

I feel like Craig’s list!  Anyway, for those interested, details below the fold:

Read More

Thursday, March 03, 2011

Call out: Fantasy league participants

Someone alerted me that there’s a Saber kind of league.  Interested people should email: jacobtulloch~gmail~com

I’m not involved in this at all.

Here’s a snippet of rules:

Read More

Monday, February 28, 2011

How to do fielding in fantasy?

A reader asked:

This year ESPN has 6 fielding scoring possibilities.

Dp, Errors, Outfield Assists, Assists, Put Outs, Total Chances.

Bearing in mind I’m not a statistician or a maths geek, I took a rough guesstimate of the median figures for all those categories at each position for regular players, set up a series of aimultaneous equations where each one equalled it’s position run value, then tested out the results. The combined figures were tweakable for total MLB value in terms of fielding WAR, but absolutely awful for individuls, loads of noise.

Was that an OK way to go about it?

If as I suspect there just isn’t enough info in just those six stats then what would be the minimum no and which ones, to make it even half reasonable.

I ask because I want to e-mail the powers that be at ESPN with some suggestions, since they are already down the fielding route and seem more open to saber ideas.

Any feedback gratefully received, especially since I’m determined to finally get a saber league set up the way I’d really like it, and the 100 points per WAR would be a key component amongst other things.

Thanks

I’ve never had to think about this.  The central idea would be to use assists for infielders and putouts or putouts+assists for outfielders.  You’d also want to know the number of balls in play, or innings played. 

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Fantasy valuation under different league structures

In replying to a BPro reader, I said:

I agree, it would definitely have been a bug. When I do my valuations, I don’t do a RP/SP split, and simply let the forecast and league structure dictate the value. And that value is what I said, that the top relievers would come in at 15-20$.

Now, if the league dictated that each team select at most 2 relievers, then I don’t see how you will get the top relievers at 17-20$. Maybe if you have 12 teams in an AL-only league? I’d have to work it out.

The fantasy product is blocked at the office (am I the only one? maybe something other than “fantasy” can be in the URL?), so maybe you can try this for me. Re-run forcing 1 RP, 2 RP, 3 RP, 4 RP, and then report back how much the top 6 relievers get under each setting. Just guessing, but I’m thinking the numbers should be something like 7$, 10$, 13$, 16$ respectively. Something like that. It certainly cannot be fixed.

Or, if you want to make it even clearer, do it with 1 SP, 2 SP, 3 SP, 4 SP. You should see a similar situation, where the numbers might be 10$, 14$, 18$, 22$ or something.

I’m going to lunch now, but when I get back, I might work it out myself, using my own system.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Yahoo saber league

Tango,
Would you please consider letting your readers know that a free yahoo league has formed using the categories and points from your post a few years ago (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/yahoo_fantasy_linear_weights_league/)? The league is called Tango! Tango! Tango!, and it auction drafts on March 20th. I made it a 12-team league because it seemed to fit yahoo’s schedule best. I know that affects the point values. If it’s significant, I’ll change them. I’d also be happy to increase the size of the league to 22 teams, as I think you originally used in your calculations.
Thanks for your consideration. The site is great!
Laffitt

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Forecasters Challenge 2011 - Preliminary Lineup

The following 19 past participants have confirmed their entries for 2011:
217 Marcel
132 Fantistics
131 Fangraphs Community
130 Baseball Info Solutions
127 Future of Fantasy
126 Bloomberg Sports
125 BigScoreSports
124 Oliver / Brian
120 Razzball
118 Steamer
116 KFFL
115 John Eric Hanson
113 FeinSports.com
112 Mike Podhorzer_FantasyPros911
111 Fantasy Scope
109 Chris Gehringer
106 CAIRO
105 Brad Null
102 Ask Rotoman

There are 4 new entrants who are in the queue (I’ll have to verify the order based on their email timestamps):
Joe Kendall
Rotochamp
Pat Senechal
Geoff Buchan
(I could have sworn there was a fifth that preceded all of these guys, and if you are out there, please let me know.  I must have misfiled your email.)

I am still waiting to hear back from two past forecasters.  As soon as they can confirm or not their participation, I will select from the queue.

If I made a mistake with anyone else, please let me know.

As always, I am going with 22 entrants.

Monday, January 03, 2011

Forecasters Challenge 2011 - Accepting entries

I just sent out the following email.  For those who also want to participate, please send me an email at tom~tangotiger~net , and I’ll put you in the queue.  I will go with 22 entries, just like the past two seasons.

As a past participant, I am once again inviting you to the Forecasters Challenge.  The rules will follow the same form as last year: http://tangotiger.net/forecast/rules.html . 

Please be kind enough to reply, yes / maybe / no, if you will participate, within the next two weeks.

Thanks, Tom

Inflation in Fantasy Keeper Leagues

Persistent reader:

Hi all,

I realize this is off-topic, but I was hoping to benefit from some of the collective intelligence here (I didn’t study stats, and I’m afraid it doesn’t come naturally to me). If it’s inappropriate here, please just tell me to shove off.

That said, I think this is a pretty basic question (probably embarrassingly so), and it involves calculating inflation in fantasy Keeper Leagues.

Based on a lot of information found in Tom’s post and the comments here (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_worth_of_sb_hr_and_all_other_categories_in_fantasy_baseball/), I have created a spreadsheet that uses projections to calculate auction values for my keeper league.

My questions:

1) If, say, my spreadsheet calculates Buster Posey to be worth $25 of the available auction dollars, but I know that he will be kept at a salary of $5, how should I account for that knowledge?  Should I remove Posey from the list of available players entirely, thereby removing that available “value,” (along with removing the $5 from the available dollars)? 

2) If the league starts 12 catchers, should I then also assume that we will be bidding on only 11 catchers specifically, so as not to change the value of the replacement-level catcher?

I hope these questions make sense.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Economics of Fantasy Valuation

Tango- I just read through this whole thread after I saw it referenced in two separate spots had I had two questions: 1. Are you still comfortable with the positions you took here? 2. Do you see your position as optimal or convenient? Thanks much.

I am ONLY comfortable to the extent that there is a continuous distribution of talent.  (We can assume this is pretty much true, and so what follows is a theoretical objection to my model, but one that is more relevant the more gaps there are in talent.)

I’ll tell you where I am not comfortable: say that there has to be 25 2B and 25 SS drafted.  And let’s say that the top 24 SS are all Jeter and Nomar and Trammell and Larkin and on and on, each of which is indistinguishable from each other.  And the 25th SS is Mario Mendoza.

And let’s say the 25 2B who are all the same, each indistinguishable from each other.

It would be insane to value the 24 SS relative to Mendoza (meaning they’d all be 20$ SS) , while you would value the 25 2B relative to the bottom guy, meaning they’d all be worth 1$.

This doesn’t make any sense.  Why would you bid 20$ for Trammell, if you can get Larkin or Jeter or… BUT, if it came down to two SS, and you had Nomar and Mendoza, then you would pay 20$ for Nomar.  So, you don’t want to be the last guy left to make the decision.  If you had Nomar and Trammell and Mendoza, do you bid 18$ for Trammell, and the guy who doesn’t up that bid does so realizing he’s only going to get a chance for 20$ of Nomar or 1$ for Mendoza?  Or, does Trammell get bid up to 20$.  And if he does, then what happens when you have Nomar, Trammell, Larkin and Mendoza available.  How much is Larkin bid?  17$?  15$?  or 20$?  How much does the first SS go for?  1$?  20$?

I would love to hear more about how economic theory would play a role here.  Teach me.

Friday, December 17, 2010

Fantasy valuation

David asks, in part:

How do you choose the player pool for averages and standard deviations? Do you use last year’s stats? Do you use projected stats? Do you use iterations? Do you use empirical data from similar fantasy leagues?

What you cannot do is just use the projected stats on its own to figure out the standard deviation.  Imagine, for example, that every pitcher is forecasted for between 8 and 12 wins.  That would set one standard deviation to be pretty low, say 0.5 wins, and so the top guy will be say 3 or 4 SD from the mean.  But, he’s only 2 wins above average.  That guy forecasted with 12 wins will win say between 6 and 18 games.  Now. imagine all base stealers are forecasted for between 8 and 12 steals.  And, if we presume stealing is far easier to forecast (for this illustration… if you can’t get past that, then call it quatlus), then the guy with 12 steals will also be 3 or 4 SD from the mean.  And in reality, he will end up with between 11 and 13 steals.

So, that’s why you can’t use the standard deviation of the forecasted stats.  You need to include the standard deviation from the uncertainty of the forecast and the random variation in the stat. 

The easiest thing to do is just look at the empirical data from prior seasons, and take the standard deviation of those observed data.  Then calculate your z-scores.  It’s going to be pretty stable each year.  For example, I pretty much stick with a 3/3/1/1/ model for RBI/R/HR/SB in terms of weighting.  Things change every year of course, and you can feel free to create a model that uses the forecasted data to determine the expected standard deviation.  That would be fun to do.  Until then, take the easy way out, day tripper.

Friday, December 03, 2010

Community Forecasts

Fangraphs launches once more.  Go there, and I’ll be including the group in my next year’s challenge.