THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, May 25, 2012

“Why Kickstarter works”

Most of you were probably not around when we were launching The Book.  The original edition was self-published.  We needed seed money for the initial printing of the book.  We also didn’t know how many books we’d need to print, as we didn’t want to overprint, and be left with tons of remainders.  We also didn’t want to underprint, and miss out on printing discounts, as well as cause delays between orders and printing.

So, we had the idea of getting pre-orders in return for a modest discount on The Book.  I think we had the list price at 16.95, and we gave a discounted price of 14.95 for pre-orders.  We got some 250 pre-orders or so, which allowed us to print about 500 books.  So, with 250 extra books to cover any regular sales, all of those regular sales would cover future books we’d order.  We timed everything pretty well, ordering 200 books or 100 books at a time, as interest slowed down.

I used the same idea for “Tangotiger Teaches”, with a discounted price for pre-registration of students funding my time for preparing the courses, and eventually using my time for the classes (which, by the way, are ongoing for the DATA 101 class).

So, I totally get the quote here:

With Kickstarter, people are preordering your idea. Sure, they’re buying something tangible — a CD, a movie, a book, etc — but more than that, they’re pledging money because they believe in you, the creator. If you take the time to extrapolate beyond the obvious low-hanging goals, you can use this money to push the idea — the project — somewhere farther reaching than initially envisaged. And all without giving up any ownership of the idea. This — micro-seed capital without relinquishment of ownership — is where the latent potential of Kickstarter funding lies.

Basically, people believed in me and MGL and Andy, and so, pledged their support directly to us, and whatever creative ideas you expected out of us.

Similarly, the students who pre-registered for my course, completely blind as I had no syllabus to speak of, and no professorial experience at all (notwithstanding what I actually do on this blog), basically are buying into me, on faith, and whatever I can deliver.

So, it’s fantastic that someone had the idea to create this as a program, as Kickstarter, to better facilitate the process.  And that leads to tons of creative people actually putting their ideas into practice, as the recipients eagerly await the results.

Speaking for myself, I am always thankful and indebted to all those who have shown the faith you have.  Basically, you have limited evidence and a “gut feel”, and you jumped in.  It’s a wonderful thing to be a part of it.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Psst… wanna intern… somewhere?

This is the LibraryThing in Maine.  They have no idea who I am, so don’t even bother going that route.

Monday, May 21, 2012

Zapruder Sudeikis

I was wondering if I was the only one crazy enough to notice this, but, no, there is someone crazier than I am, who went back to the tape, and did screen shot after screen shot.  If you think only us baseball nuts go overboard, Bill is our TV counterpart.  Welcome to the club, Bill. 

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Combining Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) with “What Number Am I Thinking Of”

RPS is a pretty boring game.  What Number Am I Thinking Of is a pretty boring game.

But, if you mix the two, and you add a kid, you get a pretty good game.  Each person thinks of a number between 0 and 100.  You play one throw of RPS.  Whoever wins get to guess the other guy’s number.  The other guy calls “higher” or “lower”.  You do it again and again, until someone guesses the number.  It becomes fun because often the person will come down to being off by 1, so the guy about to lose has go to win a string of RPS throws to win.

Anyway, if you have kids, try it out, and tell me how it turns out.

We also have a 3-person version.  It’s a tiny bit more complicated.  All three think of a number, then all three play RPS.  If one person beats the other two, that person chooses one of the other two to guess the number.  If two people tie and beat the other person in RPS, they do a one-on-one.  That person then chooses the other person to guess the number.  Once one person is knocked out of the guess the number, whoever knocked that person out has two freebies against the remaining opponent.  And you continue as a two-person match.

Try it out.  We have loads of fun with it.  I want to make it a bit more complicated, but I’m getting resistance.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Did Manny Pacquaio actually quote Leviticus?

The article reads like Manny is talking about basically being god-fearing.  But, in the paragraph in question in the article it shows:

Pacquiao’s directive for Obama calls societies to fear God and not to promote sin, inclusive of same-sex marriage and cohabitation, notwithstanding what Leviticus 20:13 has been pointing all along: “If a man lies with a man as one lies with a woman, both of them have done what is detestable. They must be put to death; their blood will be on their own heads.”

I bolded that part.  When I read it, it seems like it’s the author, not Manny, that is quoting Leviticus.  However, the other media are quoting the article as if Manny repeated Leviticus.  “Notwithstanding” is an odd word to use in this case.  The author is saying that, in spite of what Leviticus is saying, Manny is saying to fear god.  There’s no spite there.  Indeed, it’s the exact opposite of spite: in accordance with.

So, using notwithstanding is out of place there, and, the author seems to quote Leviticus, rather than attributing the quote to Manny.

Monday, May 14, 2012

When to buy Facebook?

There’s fundamentals, and there’s technicals.  This is only about the technicals.

Google opened at 100 on Aug 19, 2004 and could still be had for that price on Sep 7, 2004.  That’s about three weeks.  In between, the price went as high as 113, and as low as 99.  After that, the run started.

That’s just one data point.  Make of it what you will.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Howard Stern

Love him or hate him… you’ve got to love him or hate him!  But more than that, respect him. For a guy that’s p-ssed off alot of people, he certainly has the most faithful crew imaginable.  No one turns on him.

Monday, May 07, 2012

Star Trek convention… in comic form!

This is pretty cool.

Sunday, May 06, 2012

Eli Manning PSA

Loved it!

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Monday, April 30, 2012

“Non-sports Sites Folks Should Know”

If there’s an “indispensable” site that you think your fellow readers may appreciate, feel free to post below.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Should we have a Technology Court?

We have a FISA court that deals with matters of surveillance, and we have an immigration court.  We have divorce court.  We have all kinds of courts where the judge is an expert on the topic, or if he’s not, he’s going to become an expert based on the narrow focus of the topic.

Why don’t we have a court that deals with technology and IP?  You have congress that proposes SOPA, and some members have no idea what it is, and ask for “nerds” to be brought in at basically the 11th hour.  If SOPA had managed to be passed, a judge on the technology court would tell Congress it’s insane.  And maybe we’d get better case law guidance on IP and patents on software and “processes”.

This is me speaking naively.  Now, make me look smart, and expand the idea with a thoughtful elaboration.  Or, make me look clueless, by describing why the legal system can’t support such a court.  I’m listening…

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Prisoner’s Dilemna game show

I can’t wait it from the office, but it sounds intriguing. 

Feel free to put spoilers below.  Obviously, for those who don’t want the spoilers, watch the video before looking at the comments.

Saturday, April 14, 2012

“Use These Tips to Help Prevent Children from ever Being Abused”

A few good lessons, that’s being distributed through Little League.

Friday, April 13, 2012

“F@ck U academic paywall journals!”

In every revolution, there is one man with a vision. (*)

‘I was taken aback by how quickly this thing blew up,’ says Tim Gowers, a prize-winning Cambridge University mathematician.
It began with a frustrated blogpost by a distinguished mathematician. Tim Gowers and his colleagues had been grumbling among themselves for several years about the rising costs of academic journals.

They, like many other academics, were upset that the work produced by their peers, and funded largely by taxpayers, sat behind the paywalls of private publishing houses that charged UK universities hundreds of millions of pounds a year for the privilege of access.

There had been talk last year that a major scientific body might come out in public to highlight the problem and rally scientists to speak out against the publishing companies, but nothing was happening fast.

So, in January this year, Gowers wrote an article on his blog declaring that he would henceforth decline to submit to or review papers for any academic journal published by Elsevier, the largest publisher of scientific journals in the world.

He was not expecting what happened next. Thousands of people read the post and hundreds left supportive comments. Within a day, one of his readers had set up a website, The Cost of Knowledge, which allowed academics to register their protest against Elsevier.

The site now has almost 9,000 signatories, all of whom have committed themselves to refuse to either peer review, submit to or undertake editorial work for Elsevier journals. “I wasn’t expecting it to make such a splash,” says Gowers. “At first I was taken aback by how quickly this thing blew up.”

Gowers, a mathematician at Cambridge University and winner of the prestigious Fields Medal, had hit a nerve with academics who were increasingly fed up with the stranglehold that a few publishing companies have gained over the publication and distribution of the world’s scientific research.

(*) You are welcome.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Illogic of seeing the good in bad people: Star Trek, Larry David

Patterns of Force:

KIRK: Gill. Gill, why did you abandon your mission? Why did you interfere with this culture?
GILL: Planet fragmented. Divided. Took lesson from Earth history.
KIRK: But why Nazi Germany? You studied history. You knew what the Nazis were.
GILL: Most efficient state Earth ever knew.
SPOCK: Quite true, Captain. That tiny country, beaten, bankrupt, defeated, rose in a few years to stand only one step away from global domination.
KIRK: But it was brutal, perverted, had to be destroyed at a terrible cost. Why that example?
SPOCK: Perhaps Gill felt that such a state, run benignly, could accomplish its efficiency without sadism.
KIRK: Why, Gill? Why?

Space Seed:

KIRK: Name, Khan, as we know him today. (Spock changes the picture) Name, Khan Noonien Singh.
SPOCK: From 1992 through 1996, absolute ruler of more than a quarter of your world. From Asia through the Middle East.
MCCOY: The last of the tyrants to be overthrown.
SCOTT: I must confess, gentlemen. I’ve always held a sneaking admiration for this one.
KIRK: He was the best of the tyrants and the most dangerous. They were supermen, in a sense. Stronger, braver, certainly more ambitious, more daring.
SPOCK: Gentlemen, this romanticism about a ruthless dictator is
KIRK: Mister Spock, we humans have a streak of barbarism in us. Appalling, but there, nevertheless.
SCOTT: There were no massacres under his rule.
SPOCK: And as little freedom.
MCCOY: No wars until he was attacked.
SPOCK: Gentlemen.
KIRK: Mister Spock, you misunderstand us. We can be against him and admire him all at the same time.
SPOCK: Illogical.
KIRK: Totally. This is the Captain. Put a twenty four hour security on Mister Khan’s quarters, effective immediately.

Moral?  If you need to say something good about an historical figure, find good people to make your example.  Nelson Mandela, Gandhi, William Wallace (irony is not lost on me).  It’s not hard to find people who perservered through noble, inspiring actions.  It’s almost impossible to play the Hitler-is-good card, and somehow remain unscathed.  The only time I’ve seen it happen:

Larry David: One thing I admire about Hitler - he never took any shit from magicians. [...] [imitating Hitler] Where is the rabbit? Show me the rabbit!

Monday, April 09, 2012

Greatest Star Trek idea ever?

Wow, the Starship Enterprise, built to full scale, as a building attraction in Vegas.

Glove-slap: Brad.

Friday, April 06, 2012

Accidental Statistician

George E.P. Box.

Some of England’s best scientists were there. There were a lot of experiments with small animals, I was a lab assistant making biochemical determinations, my boss was a professor of physiology dressed up as a colonel, and I was dressed up as a staff sergeant.

The results I was getting were very variable and I told my colonel that what we really needed was a statistician.

He said “we can’t get one, what do you know about it?” I said “Nothing, I once tried to read a book about it by someone called R. A. Fisher but I didn’t understand it”. He said “You’ve read the book so you better do it”, so I said, “Yes sir”.

I asked the Army for some literature about Statistics and they duly sent me a number of useful books.

In the next 3 to 4 years I designed and analyzed hundreds of experiments of many different kinds. In my list of published papers the first two described some of that work.

Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Director’s Cuts

As much as I hate the story selections of Yahoo News (there’s a popular meme going in the comments “I checked to see if Chris Chase linked to this"), the Yahoo commenters are sometimes hilariously snarky.  For example, here’s a story of James Cameron changing one scene in Titanic, at the insistence of an astronomer who noticed the sky was all wrong.  (He recently made a similar comment to Jon Stewart that his globe is rotating in the wrong direction.  I’d hate to think how Tyson explains the implausibility of the end of Superman I.  Personally, I explain what we see as a metaphor.)

Anyway, here are some comments that cracked me up:

James Cameron = changes his film when people complain
George Lucas = changes his films when no one asked

***

leonardo dicaprio doesn’t die at the end of Titanic. At the start of Inception he washes up on the beach.

***

if u watch titanic backwards, it is about a magical ship that saves people

Saturday, March 31, 2012

Smallville returns… in comic book form

Great idea for those who’ve wanted it to live on forever.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) with Playing Cards

This is our development, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this exists in some form already. 

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