THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Yu Forecast

By Tangotiger, 11:40 AM

Over the next five years, ZiPS says 22 wins. That’s based on a 3.54 ERA on 918 IP. Reverse-engineering shows a replacement-level of around 5.50 ERA.

Oliver says 33 wins. Oliver is showing no change in IP and no change in ERA (basically) year-to-year. That’s based on a 2.62 ERA on 1051 IP. (Kershaw shows similar numbers.) Reverse-engineering shows a replacement-level of around 5.20 ERA.

It’s hard to make a comparison here. We really need to know the average that ZiPS and Oliver is using.

I checked PECOTA, and there’s no forecast yet. I’m looking forward to MGL’s forecast.

I would MUCH prefer to see the forecast as RA9 divided by league-average RA9.

(30) Comments • 2011/12/24

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Yu Forecast

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