Friday, March 04, 2011
xFIP and Buchholz
Great job by Jeremy at ESPN:
In the previous eight seasons, 43 qualifying starters had an xFIP that was at least a 1.00 higher than his ERA, according to data from FanGraphs. ... Combining all of their “before” and “after” numbers, the ERA spiked 1.08 in the following season.
That’s great stuff right there. Excellent article all-around. I would have liked to see what the average difference was between their xFIP and ERA in the “before” year. It just shows “at least 1.00”. I suppose we can guess that the average was around 1.20 or 1.30.
If xFIP was perfect, we’d have expected the ERA to spike by that same amount, but it was only 1.08, meaning that there is a bit of skill not captured by xFIP (probably the HR skill).
But, that’s just a little sidenote. It doesn’t take away that this was an excellent sabermetric piece.


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