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Thursday, July 10, 2008
WPA is… WPA is not…
What WPA represents is the quantification of your feelings as the game unfolds. Imagine if Youk hit into a triple play his first 2 AB, with the score tied 0-0 the whole time, then the Sox lead 15-0 (and he gets two outs), then he hits two HR. How is it that you felt with Youk, if you tracked it in real time?
Well, his first two AB, you are cursing his name like there’s no tomorrow, then when the team batted around (twice), your blood pressure starts to go down, and then, with the score at 15-0, you’re probably not even watching the game any more.
That is what WPA captures.... the quantification of your feelings as the game unfolds, assigned to the players involved.
WPA is not a way to evaluate the talent of a player. WPA is exactly the same as counting a PA 11 times when the bases loaded down by 1 with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th and counting a PA as almost zero in a blowout game. It is basically ridiculous to think that one PA can inform you on the talent level of a player 1000 times more in one situation than another.
WPA/LI however might be a way to evaluate the talent of a player, since now each PA is exactly worth 1 PA. The only thing we are doing is realizing that baseball might not be a random game, and that a player might tailor his approach based on the base/out inning/score. We don’t know how much he does tailor his approach. That needs to be studied.
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