THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, October 22, 2007

Worst of the best

An interesting list by Nate on series that were the least-close.  It’s a good first pass with the least data you can use.  Others may remember using changes in win probability by half inning as another way to do this, by using inning-by-inning scores.  Since I was critical of Nate making Matsuzaka predictions after his first inning of work, I also wanted to point out this, which was written yesterday morning before the game:

Let’s see … a scrappy, 23-year old second baseman who wasn’t known for his power? Maybe our man Dustin Pedroia has something up his sleeve.

Finally, if Beckett pitched the way some fans wanted, he would have been on the mound yesterday, and would not be used in Game 1 Wednesday and possibly available for three starts.  I’m obviously not saying that Monday-morning quarterbacking makes sense.  But, the incredible silliness of the overall impact that a three-day rested pitcher could have was… well, silly.  Some people really think that something that is close to a break-even play must really be a monumental gaffe.  (You know it’s close to a breakeven if you can make a reasonable argument on both sides.) And that Beckett’s excellent 2007 with his always better post-season performances really catapults him from a true talent .600-.630 pitcher into an .900 pitcher.  I’m dazzled like everyone else.  That doesn’t mean what I’m seeing is something intrinsic to Beckett. Yet.