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Wednesday, October 24, 2007
World Series Odds
Diamond Mind says 72% Redsox, with the Youkilis/Ortiz situation pretty much a tossup.
Betonline has a line of -235 Redsox, +195 Rox, which if I’m doing it right, translates to 68% Redsox.
Baseball Prospectus says 56% Rockies. BP does some “lefty/righty” adjustment on a team basis, which prima facie doesn’t seem right.
Redsox Runs Scored-Runs Allowed is: 867-657. Rox is 860-758. I know the DH affects things, but it affects things for runs scored and away. Of course, Ortiz is a premier DH, so it would affect the runs scored part alot more. On the other hand, if the AL is still the premier league, that probably balances it out somewhat. Anyway, that’s a 108 run difference in favor of the Redsox, which translates to a .560 record for the Sox, and .440 for the Rockies. If I’m doing this right, a binomial of .560, to win 4 before losing 4 means winning 63% of the time. (Interestingly, DMB says that a single-game .580 wins 70% of the time, even though the binomial says 67%, the difference being a result of the outcome not being based on .580 for each and every game.)
Basically, the odds are 2:1 against the Rockies. It’s interesting how out of line BP’s forecast is.
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