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Thursday, August 06, 2009
With or Without… Saku Koivu (in French)
Gabe gives us Saku Koivu. WOWY works great for players who miss alot of games. Saku has played the equivalent of ten full seasons and missed three. Ideally, we’d prefer that he misses an equal number in each season (Junior Griffey for example is a pretty good test case), but we’ll take what we can get.
Anyway, Les Canadiens scored around 0.30 more goals and allowed 0.10 more goals with Saku in the game, than not. That puts him at +0.17 goals per game, which would be a little more than than +.03 wins per game. Gabe gives us the actual win% WOWY, and it’s .495 with and .468 without, for an impact of +.027 wins per game.
For his career, that puts him at around +25 wins above “replacement”, which is a fairly strong total for ten seasons. You can pretty much double the number to get it into its baseball-equivalent.
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