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Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Win Shares Aging Curves
There’s probably no bigger detractor of Win Shares than I am. Still, when you have aggregated data, alot of the problems go away. To that end, here are the 5-year looking forward aging curves for Win Shares. Thanks to Studes for publishing the database. Here’s how to read the chart:
All players since 1946.
PosClass: pitcher (P) or nonpitcher (nonP)
Age:
WinSharesClass: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20+
n: number of players in class
startWS: win shares at Age
avgWS: average win shares over the next 5 years after Age
rate: avgWS / startWS
So, there were 59 nonpitchers at age 22 with at least 20 win shares, for an average win shares of 25.1. In the 5 subsequent years (ages 23-27), they averaged 23.4 win shares, retaining 93% of the win shares at age 22.
You will see two sheets: one is the data, aggregated, and the other is a subset of that data in an easy-to-use table.
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