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This comes up every now and then, and I’m not sure I’ve posted it in my blog before (though I have elsewhere). Should the win probability tables include the identities of the players, their batting spots, etc? Or, do you always presume each team is exactly equal, even if you have Jose Lima facing Albert Pujols?
There are two ways to look at this:
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July 19, 2007
Win Probability: Preallocation of wins
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