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Friday, March 19, 2010
Will Mariano Rivera save only 22 games this year, and with a 3.53 ERA?
I’m quoting Rob quoting Allen Barra using PECOTA:
Scariest of all, Rivera from 44 saves to 22, and an ERA that moves from 1.76 to 3.53.
Neyer’s response:
I don’t believe Mariano Rivera will save only 22 games. I will say, too, that if your system says those things, it’s probably worth checking under the hood just in case one of the belts is running a little loose.
Just last week, I wrote a pretty good piece about what it means to forecast 31 HR for Pujols in 2009 and I concluded:
As you can see, it runs the gamut from Delgado’s 4 to Pujols’ league-leading 47. These 13 hitters were forecasted to hit a combined 401 HR in 2009. And how many HR did they actually hit in 2009? 400. That’s right, Marcel nailed it.
So, the forecasting systems work… if you know how to properly interpret what it is they are trying to tell you.
Let’s look at who Marcel has forecasted with the highest saves:
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