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Friday, July 11, 2008
Why the split between AL and NL?
Darren Everson takes a look. He says:
This season, the average AL opening-day payroll was $97 million, $14 million more than the NL average.
I’ve already talked about this, but let’s do it again. The minimum payroll is around 400K per player times 28 players, or 11MM. Let’s take that out of each team. The average AL team is spending 86MM above minimum, while the average NL team is spending 72MM above minimum.
If they played each other all the time (i.e., as many intra and inter league games), the win% of the AL team would be .525 and the NL team would be .475. Presuming that a replacement level team is .300, that means the AL is +.225 wins per game above minimum, while the NL is +.175 wins above minimum. Over 162 games, that makes the average AL team as 36 wins above replacement (WAR) and the NL team is 28.
AL teams spend 86MM for those 36 wins, or 2.4MM per win. NL teams spend 72MM for those 28 wins, or 2.6MM per win.
So, that’s your answer. AL teams: a) spend alot more, and b) to a smaller degree, are a bit more efficient in how they spend it
If I had used a .250 replacement level they both be spending right around 1.95MM per win.
Because of this, I don’t see this as “cyclical”. As long as teams continue to spend as they do, the AL will continue to be the dominant league (or at least the one that spends the most money, which one would hope would bring in better players).
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