from Amazon
Thursday, February 11, 2010
“Why is Jermaine Dye looking for work?”
Dye, however, is caught in the crossfire of two recent trends — the reluctance of teams to sign older players and the increased emphasis by clubs on defense this offseason.
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The Cubs proposed a one-year $3 million contract, Dye said, not the $3.3 million deal that they gave to another free-agent outfielder, Xavier Nady. While Nady, 31, is five years younger than Dye, he played in only seven games last season before undergoing a second Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.
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Bry’s evidence is a set of statistics from last season that demonstrate how teams’ winning percentages rose with the number of home runs they hit per game. Teams that hit zero homers in a game had a .332 winning percentage. One home run increased the winning percentage to .517, two home runs to .659.
Giving an agent statistics is dangerous.
Anyway, I looked at my forecasts of players like Dye: slightly above average hitter, a poor fielder, at a corner or 1B position. I have his top comps as: Burrell, Nady, Garko, Giambi. Below them are Huff, Stairs, and Wiggington. Nady signed for 3.3, Garko for 0.55, Giambi 1.75. Burrell signed last year, so let’s ignore him. If Dye was offered 3MM$, he should take it. I have him as a 0.5 WAR forecast, and that puts him at 1.8MM$ or so, smack in the middle of these three guys. Huff signed for 3MM, Stairs on a minor league deal, and Wiggington signed already.
I mean, what is Dye thinking he should be getting? He’s definitely under Vlad and Matsui and Nick Johnson, and they signed for 5MM$ to 6MM$. If anything, this market has been mostly consistent in valuing players. It’s almost like they are using the valuation system we’ve created.
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