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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Why do people (including GM’s) insist on talking about houses as if they had no mortgages?

By , 03:00 AM

Here is (supposedly) a quote from Cashman:

He has insisted he won’t deal Montero unless it’s for someone like Cliff Lee, and (Gio) Gonzalez isn’t quite on that level.

Montero is a supposedly very good prospect who has almost no MLB service time and is making the league minimum.  His equity over the next 6 years is probably 50 million dollars or more (WAG), Cliff Lee is under contract until 2016 at 24 mil a year.  Does he have any equity at all?  Why would anyone trade anything of value for him?  Sure, the Yankees I suppose might want to trade something that is worth the difference between Lee’s contract and what they might pay him if he were a FA.  What would that be?  He is already making 24 a year.  Would the Yankees sign him for more if they could?  What, 27 mil?  Would they “trade” Montero for Lee?  Not in a million years and not for 10 Cliff Lees.

Gio Gonzalez, on the other hand, is a very good pitcher. Not nearly the pitcher than Lee is, but he is also making the MLB minimum with 2 years of service. He is worth WAY more than Lee.  He is a much more valuable commodity. Is he worth more than Montero?  No.  Of course not.  Not even close.  You still wouldn’t trade Montero for Gio but you would be a heck of a lot more likely to trade for him than for Lee.

So what the hell is Cashman talking about and can we PLEASE all stop talking about trading players as if they had to contracts (they were all “free and clear")??

(35) Comments • 2011/12/10
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December 07, 2011
Why do people (including GM’s) insist on talking about houses as if they had no mortgages?