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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, April 28, 2008

Why did Jake Peavy bat last night in the 6th?

By , 05:21 PM

I didn’t watch or follow the game, but I saw him on Sportscenter batting with 1 out and the bases loaded, with the Padres trailing 2-1.  Anyone who watched that game or is familiar with it can fill us in on the details.

That can’t POSSIBLY be correct to let him bat in that spot.  As it turned out, he pitched only ONE MORE INNING.  The run difference between Peavy and even an average reliever for one inning is around .1.  The RE difference in that base/out state between an average pitcher and an average lead-off hitter is around .44 runs, not even close.  Not even close!  And in a 2-1 game, the gap has to be even wider, I would think!  Peavy is an above average hitter for a pitcher, but even with that, I don’t think it is even close.

Unless there was something about the game that I am missing, you can talk all you want about IBB’s or sac bunts.  To let your pitcher hit in that situation probably costs more WE than the total of every bad IBB or sac bunt (or non-sac bunt) for an entire season, and should be grounds for immediate dismissal.

(14) Comments • 2008/04/29 • SabermetricsIn-game_Strategy
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April 28, 2008
Why did Jake Peavy bat last night in the 6th?