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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Why are hot or lucky starts on offense explainable, but not on fielding?

By Tangotiger, 10:19 AM

This Twins blogger:

But the best defensive player so far: Young. He’s +4 in plus-minus with three runs saved. Those are incredible figures considering how incompetent these metrics have held him to be in the past. He’s -57 over the past three years in plus-minus, -27 runs saved in the same period. And now he’s saving the Twins a run every three games? Really? We’ll see how long this lasts.

His last two sentences are kind of strange.  He’s not “saving” but “has saved”.  Not to mention, it’s a best estimate.  But his last sentence is correct that “we’ll see”. 

***

Related story: Willie Bloomquist, after 40 plate appearances, is .368./.400/.500 (career .266/.318/.340).  He’s currently at +3 runs batting, even though for his career, he averages close to -20 runs per season.

We may as well indict all batting stats, because it doesn’t make sense that such a terrible hitter can be performing so well.

(11) Comments • 2011/04/14 • SabermetricsStatistical_Theory
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April 12, 2011
Why are hot or lucky starts on offense explainable, but not on fielding?