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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, October 24, 2011

Why a 7-game series?

By Tangotiger, 03:01 PM

I like the reasoning:

It is only natural to presume that — since it has proven near impossible for a team to rebound from a 3-0 deficit to win a seven-game series, and since a 2-0 deficit seems like so much less of a psychological black hole — the seven-game series is a Platonic ideal

Being down 3-0 means there’s a 15:1 chance of the team behind in making it back (if both teams are equals).  And the reality is that if you are down 3-0, the odds are that you actually are not as good as the team you are trailing, making the odds even worse than 15:1. 

If you are down 4-0, that means there’s a 31:1 chance of making it back.  And again, chances are it’s even worse because the worse team is more likely to be down 4-0 than the better team.

You’ll watch game 4 of a 3-0 series, but will you necessarily watch game 5 of a 4-0 series?

So, I agree, a 7-game series, purely as part of its own universe, is an ideal structure.

(7) Comments • 2011/10/25 • SabermetricsMLB_Management
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October 24, 2011
Why a 7-game series?