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Wednesday, February 23, 2011
When you start off hot, are you really that good?
Hawerchuk shows that when a goalie starts off hugely hot after 15 games, coaches fall over themselves to give the kid a chance to keep playing. Except, after that 15-game hot start, Hawerchuk looks at the goalie’s save percentage and.... it’s league average!
That is, in-sample, he’s hugely hot. A .931 save percentage means that you are best in the league. He looks at out-of-sample, and… league average.
Try it out with baseball rookie pitchers if you like. I’d be interested to see the results. I’m going to guess that rookie pitchers who post a RA9 of 85% or better of league average in his first 10 starts (with an overall average of 75-80%) likely will have an RA9 of close to league average (maybe 95% of league average) in his next 10 starts.
Where are the saber jocks? That’s my challenge of the day for those looking to flex their muscles.
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