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Monday, August 22, 2011
When you ignore the most important variable, you get this list
G Scott Thomas wrote an article that shows the markets whose financials can most support a hockey market. In reality, he just figured out the market that can handle a “typical” sport. He noted what he left out:
Other factors would be considered, of course, such as an area’s passion for hockey. Canada has that quality in abundance, yet none of its markets did better than 80 points on the financial scale, a borderline score shared by Hamilton, Ont., and Quebec City.
I’m afraid to ask where Winnipeg would have ranked in his list if they didn’t get the Jets.
So, you need to multiply the available income by some sort of rate that they’ll actually spend it on the sport in question. A Winnipeg resident may spend 5 times as much as an Atlanta resident on hockey, and so that would push Winnipeg clear ahead of Atlanta. Same for Quebec City vs Houston let’s say.
It’s an excellent first step (basically a big regression equation). But, that’s where it has to stop. You can’t make conclusions without including the most important, if not equally important, variable.
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