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Tuesday, February 07, 2012
When to purposefully lose the lead
According to the incomparable Brian Burke, the Pats should have given up the go-ahead TD at the two-minute warning.
The smartest play of all would’ve been for Belichick to have allowed the touchdown even earlier. The Patriots certainly could have done so on the play prior to Bradshaw’s touchdown run, when he was stopped for a one-yard gain, forcing New England to burn its second timeout. In fact, they probably should have allowed a touchdown as early as the two-minute warning. That’s the point at which the Win Probability of receiving a kickoff down by four or six points (0.23) exceeds the Win Probability of trying to stop the Giants from bleeding the clock dry (0.2). The Patriots would have had almost two minutes, two timeouts, and all four downs available to get a touchdown and steal the win.
Basically, every time out has a certain win value, every second lost has a certain win value, every yard lost has a certain win value. And Brian is saying that the Pats would have maximized their chances of winning by allowing the TD to happen at the two minute warning.
This is exactly what win expectancy charts (and to a lesser extent, run or point expectancy charts) should be used for.
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