from Amazon
Saturday, January 29, 2011
What you throw influences your BABIP
Good idea worthy of more study…
The odds that any given pitcher will end up among the top 10 “luckiest” according to BABIP (or one of the other three metrics) in any one year is about 12 percent. Of the nearly 700 qualifying starting pitcher seasons since the onset of batted ball data in 2002, there were 14 pitchers (before Felix in ’10) who had a dominant fastball/change-up combo. Sample size, I know, but just look at how extreme their numbers compare: 29 percent of the time such a pitcher is on the BABIP list, more than double average, and the same 29 percent goes for HR/FB. Impressive, but then there’s LD percentage, where they have a 43 percent chance. In left on base rate, the odds rise all the way to 50 percent.
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