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Wednesday, March 02, 2011
What was behind the lower run scoring in 2010?
Almost everyone who follows baseball closely knows that run scoring and the underlying offense was considerably down last year, as compared to 2009, continuing a trend that started in 2007 (mildly in that year).
Many of those same people don’t realize that most of the decrease in 2010 was in the AL.
Also, besides the fact that AL and NL teams play one another in 11% or so of their games, the two leagues are to a large extent independent as far as run scoring is concerned (of course they share the same pool of players, players switch back and forth, and the umpires are the same), so in an inquiry into run scoring changes, you want to for the most part treat them separately.
Here are the two leagues’ average rpg per team over the last 5 years:
Year AL avg NL avg.
2010 4.45 4.32
2009 4.82 4.43
2008 4.78 4.54
2007 4.90 4.71
2006 4.97 4.76
Now, what can contribute to fluctuating runs scoring from year to year in one or both leagues? Forgive me if I leave something out.
1) Changes in parks, such as in 2010 Target Field replaced the Metrodome. I think that was the only park change in 2010.
2) Umpire personnel changes (like you happen to lose an umpire who has a large or small strike zone) or changes in the strike zone.
3) Weather - average temperature in outdoor parks and average wind direction and speed.
4) Changes in the baseball or other equipment.
5) Changes in player true talent, whether it be the personnel themselves, or physical changes among players, like PED use or non-use, weight training, better off-season conditioning, etc.
6) Random fluctuation.
Let’s look at these one at a time, with respect to the fairly drastic run reduction in the AL last year. I am not going to address #6.
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