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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, November 15, 2006

What Price Matsuzaka?

By Tangotiger, 10:38 AM

UPDATE: Nov 15, 2006
Posting bid was 51 million$. 

This is what’s going to happen: Matsuzaka is going to tell Seibu that they have to kick back almost 30 million$ back to him.  Why is that?  Because Mastsuzaka sees how much he’s worth, and therefore, he’d be better off waiting two years, and become a bonafide free agent, and not share the money.

The 51 fee, plus the likely 60/6 year deal means he’s worth 111 million$ for 6 years (18.3 per year).  If he holds out for two years at say 9 million$ total with Seibu, he’d sign an 80/4 deal, for a total of 89 over 6 years. 

For him to sign a 60/6 deal means that he’s shortchanging himself 29 million$.  Look for Seibu to buyout Matsuzaka for that amount of money.

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(40) Comments • 2006/12/15 • SabermetricsFinances
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November 15, 2006
What Price Matsuzaka?