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Friday, September 25, 2009
What if you had no teammates?
In hockey, this is possible, thanks to the shootout. A Gabriel gives us a cool study. What he does is compare the goals, save, wides, per shot on a shootout to those during regular play, by controlling for the spot on the ice when the shot is taken.
So, given that a shot was taken during regulation play, had that shot been taken during a shootout at that specific location, there’d be roughly 13-14 goals scored per 100 shots. In shootouts, there are 33-34 shots taken. The difference between the two is that you have a defense to contend with. Having other bodies in front of the goalie means that 20 fewer goals are scored per 100 shots. This does NOT mean that the defense is “worth” 20 goals. It has nothing to do with that, whastsoever. It simply means that having bodies out there substantially reduces the chance to score a goal.
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