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Tuesday, October 13, 2009
What if Lidge were the worst closer on the face of the Earth?
What would that do to the Phillies chances of winning the next series?
Rob Neyer says this:
Let’s assume that the Phillies do beat the Rockies. With the 2008 version of Brad Lidge protecting small leads, I would rate the Phillies as slight underdogs against the Dodgers. With the 2009 version, though? I’ll take the Dodgers in five.
Going from being a slight underdog (which they are in Vegas right now) to losing in 5? Hardly.
If we go from a good closer to the worst possible closer you can get - a below replacement level pitcher - you reduce a team’s chances of winning a game by maybe 2%. That increases a team’s chances of winning a 7-game series by around 4%. Dodgers in 5 with a terrible closer? I don’t think so.
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