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Thursday, September 17, 2009
What if forwards were limited to their shot quality like defensemen are?
Gabriel applies the goals per shot rate by location for forwards, by using the frequency of shots by location of defensemen. The result:
The overall shooting percentage for that entire set of shots is 4.59%, compared to the 4.01% shooting percentage that defensemen actually had
If you are looking for analogies in other sports, think of a running back’s yards per carry, but based on the league frequency of runs at various down/yardsTogo. Or in baseball, the number of runners driven in, based on the frequency of how many runners the league sees at 1B, 2B, 3B at 0,1,2 outs. And so on. Basically, you neutralize the context, so that you can make the apples-to-apples comparison.
Gabe’s results are entirely expected, seeing that a disproportionate number of good shooters are forwards (that’s why they are forwards, in part), and bad ones are defensemen. The question being answered is: how much of a difference.
In addition to shooting percentage however, are assists. First off, “shooting percentage” excludes shots that are wide, which is a no-no here. Also, if a defenseman shoots low on purpose (to get a rebound), that ups his assist count. The forward shooting from the point likely does it because he’s got no traffic to help him out, and so will shoot to score (no chance for tip-ins, etc).
So, what Gabe did here was a great first look. Now, we need to look deeper to control for more of the context, beyond the x,y location.
Love this stuff!
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