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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, August 11, 2011

What happens to Brandom Morrow late in the game?

By Tangotiger, 12:09 PM

Ghostrunner puts the microscope on Morrow

On days like Saturday, when Brandon Morrow is cruising along and everything seems to be going swimmingly, it seems the he cannot be touched. Then one bad inning comes along and submarines the entire process.

Is Brandon Morrow the victim of consistently bad luck? Is he proof defense independent stats are missing a key element to successful performance? Does his diabeetus limit his potential as a starter? I don’t think I can answer any of these definitively, but we can surely look.

Pitch Bucket    Whiff Rate    Average Fastball velocity
1
-25    11.4%    94.02
26
-50    13.6%    94.03
51
-75    11.1%    93.42
76
-100    12.7%    93.18
100
+    11.2%    93.55

His career BABIP each time through the order: .274, .315, .365.  One standard deviation is about 20 points. 

This is why HITf/x will be a godsend too.  We’ll know if the opposing hitters are hitting them hard, or they are just getting lucky finding the holes.

(7) Comments • 2011/08/12 • SabermetricsPitchers
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August 11, 2011
What happens to Brandom Morrow late in the game?