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Friday, September 09, 2011
What happens to a pitcher’s BABIP year to year?
I took all pitchers with at least 400 balls in play since 1993 and calculated their BABIP (batting average on balls in play… for my purposes, I include reaching on error). I put the pitchers in buckets (e.g., the .300 bucket was all pitchers with BABIP of .295 to .305).
The first column to the left is the Year 1 BABIP bucket. The columns on the right are the Year 2 BABIP buckets.
n is the number of pitchers in the Year 1 bucket.
The % are the % of pitchers that landed in the Year 2 buckets.
In blue is the median.
We see therefore a slight effect that as your Year 1 BABIP was bigger, you have a slightly bigger chance in landing in the higher BABIP buckets in year 2.
Those who were in the .260 bucket in year 1 had a 26% chance of being in the .320 bucket or higher.
Those who were in the .360 bucket in year 1 had a 45% chance of being in the .320 bucket or higher.
The very last column is the average BABIP in year 2.
Roughly speaking, there’s about an 80% regression toward the mean.
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