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Saturday, August 06, 2011
What happens after a pitcher has established his greatness?
Roger Clemens established his greatness after his age 24 season (as calculated by B-R.com). In his last 3 seasons (aged 22-24), he had an ERA+ of 155 (which is a runs allowed index of 65). He followed that up with an RA index of 70, 76, 47, 61. Dwight Gooden established his greatness after his age 21 season (average of 67). But he followed that up with 84, 98, 88, 102.
What happens overall? I found 17 pitchers born since 1952 who established their greatness (runs allowed index of 71 or better over a 3 year period) by the age of 26. Overall, their greatness level was an RA index of 68. In the next 4 years, they performed at a level of 78. 25% of the time, they performed at an RA index of 67 or better, and 25% of the time they performed at an RA index of 90 or worse.
The average standard deviation in performance was an RA index of 10. That means that if you had someone who established his greatness at an RA index of 68, and who followed that up with a 4-year average of 78, that 4 year average would be 78 +/- 1 SD = 10.
Only two of the pitchers, Pedro and Clemens, had a better performance level after they’ve established their greatness level.
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