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Thursday, February 11, 2010
What does SIERA think of walks?
I started with this baseline data:
PA BB SO BatBall GrnB LinB FlyB
1000 90 180 730 314 146 270
That is, you have 1000 batters, of which 90 are walks, 180 are strikeouts, and 730 are batted balls. And the batted balls are broken down as 314 GB, 146 LD, 270 FB. SIERA comes in with an ERA of 4.31. Estimating 234.7 IP, and .92 ER per R, that means 122.31 runs allowed.
I created a matching line for FIP, using the same PA, BB, SO, IP data, and putting in 27 HR (10% of FB). Adding in a constant +3.1995 (in place of the “3.2"), and I get an identical ERA and runs allowed of 4.31 and 122.31.
I created a crude BaseRuns equation to give me the same result.
Finally, I put the above in the Markov calculator as:
http://tangotiger.net/markov.html
910 AB, 235 H, 54 2B, 5 3B, 27 HR, 90 BB, 180 SO
This gets me 4.688 runs per game. Multiplying by .92 and I get 4.31 as an ERA.
All equations are now calibrated to the same baseline.
I then added 1 walk, 1 PA to see what would happen:
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