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Sunday, May 11, 2008
What does it mean when a batter has had a bad or good April?
I did basically the same thing I did with pitchers, but this time for batters. I used only BA because I used box scores to gather the April and non-April data. Later I’ll use OPS or something like that. Again, the data are from 04-07.
I also only looked at batters who were on the same team the year before the year with the good or bad April.
For the projections, I used a basic Marcel, weighting each season 25% more then the prior season. I regressed based on 50% regression per 600 AB. And I age adjusted by adding 2 point of BA for all players younger than 28, subtracting 4 points for older than 30 but less than 36, and subtracting 8 point for older than 35.
As with the pitchers, I broke all batter with at least 50 AB in April into two groups. Those who hit less than .200 and those who hit more than .350.
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