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Friday, May 02, 2008
What do good and bad starts by pitchers tell us?
I looked at the first month of the season (April only) ERA for all pitchers who were either exclusive relievers or exclusive starters. I did this for 04-07.
From these, I put them into two groups: Those that started out great in ERA and those that started out terribly.
For starters, I used an ERA of over 6 or under 3 for a poor or great start. For relievers, I used 5.2 and 1.8. This created 82 and 89 pitchers in the two starter groups, bad and good starts, and 68 and 91 pitches in the two reliever groups. Again, that is for 4 years combined. There might be duplicate pitchers (probably are) in some groups from year to year. Not in the same year of course.
For each pitcher in each group, I computed his projected ERA before the season started, using a crude Marcel with no age adjustments (I did do a regression).
I also computed their projected ERA after the one month of great or poor performance, updating the pre-season projection with the new information by weighting the new information twice the amount of the prior (pre-season) information. Finally, I looked at their ERA for the remainder of the season.
Here are the results and some commentary:
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