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Wednesday, October 07, 2009

What are the chances that the Nats win the World Series, if they were already in the playoffs?

By Tangotiger, 04:38 PM

Patriot gives them 100:1 odds, when the average is 7:1 (8 playoff teams, one winner):

Suppose that for some reason the Phillies’ place in the playoffs (including seeding--obviously they would actually play the Dodgers and not the Rockies, but that’s besides the point) was taken by the Nationals. What would the probabilities look like in that case? Washington was last in the majors with a crude strength estimate of .408--plugging that in produces these results: ... Washington has a 1% chance to win the World Series given these assumptions.

(19) Comments • 2009/10/08 • Sabermetrics • Talent_Distribution

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October 07, 2009
What are the chances that the Nats win the World Series, if they were already in the playoffs?