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Thursday, February 10, 2011
Weaver: to Lincecum or not to Lincecum, that is the arbitrator’s question
Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Josh Johnson are all each other’s comparables. In their first year of arb-eligibility, Felix, Verlander, and Johnson got between 3.675 and 3.800MM$. In their second year of arb-eligibility, they got 6.85 to 7.75MM$. Clearly MLB thinks of the three as interchangeable. Their two year contracts for their first two seasons of arb eligibility: Felix: 11.0, Verlander: 10.5, Josh 11.5 (though Johnson signed as part of a longer term deal).
Weaver however is a bit ahead of them according to his salary. His first year of arb-eligibility had his salary at 4.265MM$, or about 14% higher than his other three brothers. In their 2nd year of arb eligibility, the three of them averaged 7.27MM$, and 14% higher would be 8.28MM$.
The Angels put in 7.375MM$, squarely in the middle of Felix, Verlander, and Josh Johnson. Obviously, they are going to use those three as their main comps. Weaver put in 8.8MM$, which is substantially higher than what those three got. How is Weaver going to justify that amount? He’s going to have to bring in Tim Lincecum as his comp as well as those three.
If we make Weaver’s comps the three obvious plus Lincecum, then their 4yr average in their 1st year of arb eligibility is 5.06MM$, far above what Weaver got his first year. In their 2nd year, the three obvious + Lincecum averaged… 8.7MM$.
So, that’s what Weaver’s camp is shooting for, that Jered Weaver has four comps: Felix, Verlander, Josh Johnson, and Tim Lincecum.
Given Lincecum’s relatively down year (in relation to his two Cy Young years), this is a great opportunity for Weaver to use Lincecum in his comp group. The interesting thing is that Lincecum’s 13MM$ was “earned” from his 2008-2009 performance, but “counts” side-by-side with his 2010 performance. Weaver’s group is going to say “hey look… look at what Linecum did in his 2nd year of arb eligibility to earn 13MM$”.
Therefore, if Weaver prevails, you know the arbitrator accepted the Lincecum argment. If he doesn’t, then the arbitrator stuck with the three main comps and ignored Lincecum.
***
I also presume this is a prelude to a 5-year contract. If the arbitrator rejects the Lincecum argument, then he’ll sign for what Felix and Verlander signed (close to 5/80). If the arbitrator however accepts the Lincecum argment, and awards him 8.8MM$ instead, then 5/80 extension goes out the window. The 8.8MM$ is 20% higher than what his non-Lincecum comps got, so that would push Weaver long-term extension to close to a 5/100 deal.
Let’s see how this plays out…
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