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Monday, July 06, 2009
We have a winner: someone figured out ERA+ the right way
Here I was, all ready to blast b-r.com for taking down yet another smart and willing fan of ERA+ when I saw Poz say this:
Rivera’s best five, maybe (1999, 2003-2005, 2008): 26-16, 1.64 ERA, 367 ip, .904 WHIP, 338 Ks, 72 walks, 220 saves, 271 ERA+.
I don’t think b-r.com let’s you figure out cumulative totals of non-successive seasons with its play index. I was all ready to say “Sean Forman, you took down Joe Posnanski too?” I figured that Joe must have either simply did a simple average of ERA+ of those five seasons (ERA+ of 276), or a weighted average (also 276).
Could Joe have actually did it the right way? Take Mo’s ERA, multiply by ERA+/100 to get the park/league ERA. Then, convert that to ER by dividing by 9 and multiplying by Mo’s IP. Add all the ER up (181.8) and divide by Mariano’s total ER (67) to get… 2.71.
I bow at your feet, Joe Posnanski. You are the first one that I have seen from outside the very hardcore sabermetric pit that has actually figured out ERA+ on a multi-year level.
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