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Friday, May 08, 2009
Wasting pitches
Dan looks at what happens when you waste a pitch once the pitcher is up 0-2:
In plate appearances where the 0-2 pitch was not wasted, the aggregate wOBA was .226. In plate appearances where the 0-2 pitch was wasted, the aggregate wOBA was .245—substantially higher. Just to be clear, these numbers include all plate appearances that pass through 0-2, not just those that ended at 0-2 or the next pitch.
I have the wOBA by count, for 1993-2008. This is for all PA. At 0-2, the pass-through wOBA is .220. At 1-2, the wOBA is .248. The 1-2 includes: SSB, SBS, BSS. That is, it includes those PA that have the potential to be part of the wasted-pitch sequence, and the other sequences. The gap between 0-2 and 1-2, among all PA, is 28 points (.248-.220). I have over half-a-million PA in my dataset.
Dan looked specifically for the wasted pitch on the 0-2 count, compared to the non-wasted pitch. (I’m sure his dataset is within the last year or two, so be careful about the comparison of the absolute numbers.) He shows the gap to be 19 points (.245 minus .226). So, we see that the wasted pitch does have *some* impact, not the least of which is that the batter might chase it.
I would not be surprised that if you look at how a batter got to the 1-2 count (the called ball was the first, second or third pitch), that it’s irrelevant, and that the wOBA is the same in all three cases. That is, wasting a pitch is a foolish thing to do in that particular at bat.
However, suppose that a batter “knows” that a pitcher will not waste a pitch. If he knows the pitcher’s waste-rate is much below the league average (for a pitcher of his caliber), then he would approach that pitcher differently, and maybe get a higher wOBA on the 0-2 count.
Furthermore, what if wasting a pitch confers some advantage on the pitcher in future at bats in that game. That is, the pitcher will waste a pitch inside to show the batter he’s not afraid of him and will take things in his own hands if need be (Pedro’s favorite strategy). Or, if he wastes it wide, he might show that he might be a bit wild. In either case, the pitcher might get into the hitter’s head.
So, we can also look to see how the batter hits in next at bat that game, against that pitcher, if he had a wasted-pitch at bat.
Love this game theory stuff…
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