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Thursday, September 30, 2010
WAR v MVP spectrum
Posnanski said:
You want to see something fascinating? I looked back at the MVPs in both leagues for the last 40 years. They break down like so:
First base: 17
Left field: 15
Right field: 11
Third base: 10
Shortstop: 7
Center field: 6
Second base: 6
Catcher: 5OK, does that order look familiar at all? If you’re a fan of Bill James, it should. That order is almost a precise replica of Bill James Defensive Spectrum, which ranks the positions from easiest to hardest:
The Defensive Spectrum:
First base
Left field
Right field
Third base
Center field
Second base
Shortstop
CatcherLook at that: Except for a couple of extra MVPs to the glamour position of shortstop, the MVPs have gone in perfect order from easiest position to hardest. Why? Because the MVP is an offensive award. Because our idea of value in large part revolves around offensive contributions
But, how many MVP-type seasons are being put up at each of the positions? I took all the players with at least 6 rWAR, from 1996-2008. That’s 188 such seasons (in 13 years, or an average of 14.5 per season). With 8 positions, and the DH, that means we should expect about 23 MVP-type seasons for each position, if each position was randomly filled with superstars. This is what we actually get:
n PosPrim
33 CF
31 1B
26 LF
23 3B
22 SS
22 RF
17 2B
10 C
4 DH
1B and LF stay in the top 3, and 2B/C remain in the bottom 3. CF vaults to the top. What does this mean?
1. It’s hard to get alot of value at catcher, since it’s hard to get alot of playing time at catcher. So, we can easily explain that one.
2. You don’t have as many great players at 2B, because if they were great, they’d probably still be at SS, or maybe 3B.
3. Great players are in CF because, well, there’s nowhere else for Beltran and Andruw and other great off+def CF to go.
That aside, WAR seems to do a good enough job of not being position-biased.
Here are the totals since 1919:
n PosPrim
164 CF
143 LF
142 RF
122 3B
121 1B
94 SS
91 2B
46 C
7 DH
1 P <-- means a player primarily a pitcher got at least 6 non-pitcher WAR (Ruth, 1919)
As you can see, historically, great players are in the outfield. This MAY point to a problem with the positional adjustments in rWAR. Or, it could just mean that great talent has moved to the OF in the old days, and it’s a bit more equitable these days.
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