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Tuesday, September 14, 2010
WAR as an example of critical thinking
My response, or addendum, to Colin:
I agree wholeheartedly with Colin. When I was developing the framework for WAR, it was all about breaking it down by components, so that we can see how it works, and, if one so chooses, replace the calculations of one or more components with other sets of calculations. WAR is a framework that is easy to follow and accept.
As an example, look at the way Fangraphs lays it out for Ryan Zimmerman.
We see that he’s +31 runs above average in offense, +16 runs above position average in fielding, +19 runs for playing time, +2 runs for his position, for a total of +67 runs (rounding issues notwithstanding). The conversion to wins makes it +6.9 wins above replacement according to Fangraphs’ implementation of the WAR framework (fWAR).
Now, suppose you don’t like the fact that fWAR uses UZR. You are a Total Zone maven. Well, guess what, you simply move one number in, and move one number out. It doesn’t invalidate the rest of the metric.
Suppose you think replacement level is set too high, or too low. Well, change that too. Suppose you think Linear Weights makes no sense, and prefer BaseRuns. Well, go ahead, knock yourself out. Suppose you think that 3B is easier to play than 2B. Change that too.
The important point is that you have a FRAMEWORK. Create that, adopt that, follow it. That’s WAR. Now, once you have a framework, you need an implementation. You can be lazy and let Fangraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Reference (rWAR) figure that out for you. Or, gulp, you can do as Colin says here and think for yourself.
What you can’t do is just throw your arms up and say the solution is too difficult AND THEN proceed to give us your opinion as to who is the most outstanding player! If it’s too hard to find the solution, then your opinion becomes irrelevant. It’s a bullsh!t opinion, because it’s a summary opinion without evidence.
So, this is what sabermetrics is about, the journey, the thought process, the critical thinking. Do it, because we can never have enough people doing this.
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