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Wednesday, June 16, 2010
WAR aging curves, with no survivor bias issue
Of WAR accumulated over the 4 year span of ages 21-24, Albert Pujols ranks as #2 all-time (of players born since Ruth). In the top 100 for that age group is Carlos Beltran and Ozzie Guillen among others. From age 25-27, these 100 best players accumulated an average of 14.5 WAR. I’ll call that age 26.
Of WAR accumulated over the 4 year span of ages 22-25, Mickey Mantle leads the way, and in the top 100 we find Lenny Dystra, among others. Those 100 best-of-the-best 100 players accumulated an average of 14.7 WAR from ages 26-28 (which I’ll call age 27).
So, what I’m doing here is focusing on the best-of-the-best for each age class. And the best 21-24 year olds ended up with a slightly less WAR at age 26 than the best-of-the-best 22-25 year olds at age 27. Hence, players peak higher at age 27 than age 26.
Do you like this method?
Repeating this for all age groups, here are the 3-yr WAR for the 100 best players at each age class:
3WAR Age
11.1 25
14.5 26
14.7 27
15.0 28
14.4 29
14.0 30
13.6 31
13.5 32
11.8 33
11.0 34
9.5 35
7.9 36
6.2 37
5.1 38
3.3 39
2.2 40
The peak age for the best players is age 28.
If you guys are good with this, I’ll repeat for pitchers. I haven’t seen the results yet, but I’m pretty interested.
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