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Thursday, May 27, 2010
WAR aging curves, by quality of performance
I looked at how many WAR a non-pitcher had in his (up to) previous 4 seasons, and then looked at how many WAR he had in each following season.
The first column says this: of all the players with at least 16 WAR over the preceding 4 seasons, they totalled 21.2 WAR, and then followed that up with 4.1 WAR, then 3.6 WAR, 3.0, 2.5, and so on.
As you can see, my standard rule of losing 0.5 WAR each year holds pretty well, at least for the good players. Generally speaking otherwise, players lose 20% of their WAR each year. If you prefer, you can use that percentage dropoff instead.
16.00 12.00 8.00 4.00 1.00 0.00 WARclass
21.2 13.3 9.3 5.3 1.8 (0.5) WAR_age4
4.1 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 WAR_age5th
3.6 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 WAR_age6th
3.0 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 WAR_age7th
2.5 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 WAR_age8th
2.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 WAR_age9th
1.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 WAR_age10th
1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 WAR_age11th
3.1 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 WAR_ageRest
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