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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Vin Mazzaro

By Tangotiger, 03:05 PM

Should you let your starting pitcher save face

When Patrick Roy played his last game in Montreal, he allowed nine goals.  In that case, you SHOULD let your goalie save face.  He plays three-quarters of the games, and your backup goalie is there to give you that chance to help out the starting (and star) goalie.

But in baseball, it’s every man for himself.  You need to be able to pitch to save your bullpen as much as possible.  My basic rule is that your starting pitcher (or any pitcher who last pitched at least 5 days ago) needs to be able to throw to 18 batters (about 65-70 pitches).  Mazzaro last pitched 5 days earlier, and in the game in question faced 21 batters and threw 77 pitches.  Entering his final inning, he faced 16 batters and threw 62 pitches.  So, it’s a close call, a defensible call, to bring in Mazzaro for one more inning.

It reminded me of Greg Swindell’s first MLB game.  The Redsox ended up winning 24-5, with Swindell giving up 6 runs in 3 2/3.  He faced 20 batters, and probably threw about 70 pitches or so.  One of his relievers, Bryan Oelkers (who last pitched 4 days earlier), also faced 20 batters (giving up 9 runs in 2 1/3).  He probably threw about close to 70 pitches as well.

That seems to me to be about the limit.  Don’t let your well-rested pitcher go through the order more than twice if he’s being hitting around out there.

(9) Comments • 2011/05/19 • SabermetricsHistory
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May 18, 2011
Vin Mazzaro