THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Value of a called pitch

By Tangotiger, 10:19 AM

Someone at BPro was asking about the value of a called pitch. This is how I explain it quickly:

A crude way to think about the run value of a strike or ball is this way:

The run value of a walk is around +.30 runs, and the run value of a strikeout is around -.27 runs.

So, going from an 0-0 count to a 4-0 count means that each called ball is +.075 runs.

Going from 0-0 to 0-3 means that each called strike is -.09 runs.

That means that switching a called ball to a called strike is going from being at a +.075 run state to a -.09 run state, or around a .16 run swing.

So, getting that one call every game for 150 games means .16 runs x 150 calls = 24 runs.

This is just a quick crude way to try to frame the expectation.

(8) Comments • 2011/08/25 • Sabermetrics • Linear_Weights

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