from Amazon
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
UZR:new and improved
MGL has the whole story at Fangraphs.
He was saying how the year-to-year r=.50 for UZR and .70 for OPS. I’m not sure how many games he’s talking about, but let’s say it’s 120 for each. Remember the correlation equation:
r = Games / (Games + x)
For UZR, that would make x=120. For OPS, that would make x=51
So, this would mean you need 2.4 times as many games for UZR as for OPS to get the same reliability. So, one year of OPS reliability (162 games implies r=.80) is the same as 2.4 years of UZR (162x2.4 games implies r=.80)
All numbers for illustration purposes only. But I just know someone will quote me without that rider.
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