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Thursday, November 24, 2011
UZR for NHL shooters
It’s the same basic idea here: figure out where the shot is taken, and whether it’s a rebound or not, and if it’s with the man advantage or not, to calculate how often an average player would have scored a goal. Compare that to how many goals he actually scored, and you get a measure of how good a scorer he is GIVEN THAT HE GOT A SHOT AWAY AT THAT LOCATION. (Just BEING at that location requires skill as well, so, that’s a separate metric.)
Kovalchuk gets +.042 goals per shot taken (given the above parameters). Over the 4 years, that’s +63 goals above average. So, once he takes a shot, he’s deadly.
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