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Friday, February 11, 2011
Using objective data for fielding
David Pinto:
The Probabilistic Model of Range uses six parameters to determine the probability of a ball in play being turned into an out. Three of those, the direction, velocity, and batted ball type, are subjective measures. Three of them, the handedness of the batter, the handedness of the pitcher, and the park are objective. If I used just those three objective measures to construct the model, would I see a bigger spread in the data?
...
What I would like you to notice, however, is that the spread of the index is indeed wider than the original PMR model shows. So a probabilistic model that uses only objective parameters also shows a larger spread.
What David is showing is how well he can predict actual outs to expected outs. He shows that he can do better by including subjective data.
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