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Thursday, May 07, 2009
Usefulness of batter/pitcher matchups?
In this BTF forum thread, Chris Dial is saying:
I’m no regression expert, but where is that point? 80 PAs? 20 PAs? Tango and I have had a similar discussion around pitching matchups, and I still disagree that it’s useless info. Much of it is, but there are real human factors that wash out in non-specific samples, but can be very real, based on the nature of the interaction.
Craig concurs:
I disagree as well. The problem I have with using matchup data is that I would much rather put the qualitative rather than quantitative data to work here. A true saberite wouldn’t want to use any of it, but while I disagree completely with that position, I think using matchup data, while it is as you very susceptible to human factors and highly non-random in origin, can often obscure rather than illuminate unless accompanied with a qualitative appreciation of those appearances…
But I do agree with what you say.
Let me quote myself in The Book:
The Book Says:
Knowing a player will face a particular opponent, and given the choice between that player’s 1500 PA over the past three years against the rest of the league, or twenty-five PA against that particular opponent, look at the 1500 PA.
...
The Book Says:
Sixty highly targeted PA are still not enough evidence to overwhelm the knowledge contained in 1500 random PA.
...
You see, we’re not saying that it doesn’t matter which pitcher is facing which hitter. It most certainly matters. Every person is different, and there’s no reason to think that two overall equally talented pitchers, but talented for different reasons, will necessarily have the same success level against the same hitter. However, you can’t tell by looking at the numbers from twenty-five or sixty PA. There is simply too much noise masking the truth under those numbers. You can’t say Edgar owns la famiglia Cormier, or that Mussina owns Varitek because, well, look at the numbers. The numbers don’t support your statement, because of the small sample sizes. For you to say that a certain hitter owns a certain pitcher, you have to go beyond the numbers. You have to look at the very specific traits of these players. We’ll look at a few traits in a second, but as noted earlier, there are many different kinds of traits to consider. When looking at batter/pitcher confrontations, scouting information becomes a critical component to the analysis.
As far as I can see, Chris, Craig and I all agree on the issue. I disagree with Chris’ characterization of my position, and I totally disagree with Craig’s characterization of what a “true saberite” is (which he makes it seem to be one who ignores all qualitative information).
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