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Friday, December 24, 2010
Umpires and counts
More from J-Doug.
I don’t have anything smart to say but, Mike in the comments said smartly in one sentence what we’ve been dancing around. The data we see is less than the data available, because the batter swings at pitches that ultimately removes those pitches from the sample. And by count, the batter will swing at different locations.
Not only does the distribution of pitches change by count
But so does the likelihood of the batter to swing, and when the batter swings he changes the sample which the umpire is presented with by removing pitches from the sample. As I indicated to John Walsh back before he first published The Compassionate Umpire, the swing selection is enough to explain the whole “compassion” effect. The umpire may be doing nothing differently.
When I say “may”
I don’t necessarily mean “is”, but the magnitude is the right size and it’s very well correlated with the “compassion” effect. Any study investigating this effect must take the swing selectivity of the batters into account if we’re going to figure this out properly.
by Mike Fast on Dec 24, 2010 3:35 PM EST
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